A new study has found that if magnetic-based hard disk drives (HDDs) continue to progress at their current rate then by 2020 we'll see a 2.5" HDD with a capacity of more than 14TB at a cost of about $US40. Flash memory will also become cheaper, but will reach terminal limits before 2020 keeping the ultra-fast technology from replacing HDDs.The study by Professor Mark Kryder and Chan Soo Kim of Carnegie Mellon University, published in IEEE Transactions on Magnetics, showed that in fact most technologies wouldn't be able to compete with HDDs on a cost-per-TB basis by 2020. That is, except for two new technologies: phase change random access memory (PCRAM) and spin transfer torque random access memory (STTRAM).
PCRAM is based on a technology involving heat and chalcogenide glass. Heating the glass switches between both an amorphous and crystalline state that can be used as memory. The downside is this technology takes a lot of power to sustain.
STTRAM uses a spin-polarized current that writes data by reorienting states of a magnetic tunnel. The technology is more power conscious than PCRAM, but at this point it has less potential for higher capacities of data.
Commenting on the study, Kryder said, "We were surprised to find that the study indicated that, even in 2020, HDDs were likely to be considerably less expensive on a cost per terabyte basis than any of the competing technologies."
Kryder also went on to say that he found it surprising that the technical limits and potential of certain technologies weren't reflective of where the industry is investing its research dollars. Rather, Kryder believes the industry invests where they have the most current knowledge.
Kryder hopes the study will focus the industry in evaluating technologies that have significant potential long-term - i.e. PCRAM and STTRAM.
The study can be read in the IEEE Transactions on Magnetics journal, Vol. 45, No. 10, October 2009.
HDD's for storage, SSD's for speed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_memory#Memory_wear
Not to mention that SLC will most likely take over MLC's when the prices come down. 100,000 writes? That's plenty of writes to play with.
Nope, not going to work. We'll need a significant breakthrough in terms of write capability before it can go "serious" mainstream.
HDD's will still be cheaper and more capacious per unit cost as oppossed to ANY existing tech or currently in development, future technology.
Your comments baffle me!!!!!
HDD's will still be cheaper and more capacious per unit cost as oppossed to ANY existing tech or currently in development, future technology.
Your comments baffle me!!!!!
Not necessarily. This is just an informed prediction, not fact.
HDD's will still be cheaper and more capacious per unit cost as oppossed to ANY existing tech or currently in development, future technology.
Your comments baffle me!!!!!
Even if that is true, and I do not doubt that it is, I believe that the market is going to favor speed and energy efficiency more than size/cost ratios. Whichever technology has the best of all the factors will win out.
There could still be both types in production in 2020 without either really winning out.
That's gotta be a lot of porn
also for upgrading to the next os,by current standards since
640GB=20-21 hours
14TB=450 hours=19 days
lol, gotta agree with that.
To make a true 1GB hdd you would need 1024MB hence why you only get 0.9x which obviously multiplies out the biger they go ( 1024GB in a TB )
To make a true 1GB hdd you would need 1024MB hence why you only get 0.9x which obviously multiplies out the biger they go ( 1024GB in a TB )
A 'true 1 GB hard drive'? Please, just call it 1 GiB.
To make a true 1GB hdd you would need 1024MB hence why you only get 0.9x which obviously multiplies out the biger they go ( 1024GB in a TB )
LOL at " a true 1GB hdd", it has a specific name since 1999. Just call it 1 GiB.
To make a true 1GB hdd you would need 1024MB hence why you only get 0.9x which obviously multiplies out the biger they go ( 1024GB in a TB )
I don't think SSD's have this problem...
sorry man.. it was just a joke sorta i ........ i was just saying thats a damn lot of space lols....
i wonder of weel have 10Gigabyte a second read write times by then?
Because they're labelling them correctly now?
Perhaps this was the case when your usb stick was '64MB'. Not so with a 2GB one I assume. Please correct me if I'm wrong!
That's gotta be a lot of porn
also for upgrading to the next os,by current standards since
640GB=20-21 hours
14TB=450 hours=19 days
first, the HDD manufacturers will think up something to keep the gap from getting wider. might be something really retarded like just making the drives closer to advertised capacity, or maybe something really smart like feeding the marketing department with binary (tera)bytes
second, 14TB in 2020 is probably going to be a relatively small space.
third, i am rather confused about the 640GB = 20 hours thing. what are you referring to? video capacity? i can store 20 hours worth of good quality video within 10GB of space no problem
19 days? by 2020, 2048P will be considered "low end". 4K movie theatres won't be so hot anymore. consumer-grade video camcorders will be able to see more than yer eyes can
remember, hard drives get bigger and more advanced as time goes on, to match everything else, which also grows
and investing in research in where they already had the most knowledge? i thought the whole point of research is to do exactly the opposite...
Last edited by carmatic on 25 Oct 2009 - 12:37
but all it takes is just a little knock and it could all be gone?? i've had so many hard disks die on me from physical damage, im surprised that something so fragile can be so widespread...
oh i see.
i thought you were complaining about"lost some space after formating disk" lol
Nonsense, as if SSD is so reliable lol, I've read many horror stories about that and guess what; all data needs to be backed up, even the stuff on SSD, so reliability becomes less of an issue, but on the other hand, backup on hard drives is much cheaper!
sounds like a dream today. lol
sounds like a dream today. lol
14TB is still disappointing... I was expecting petabyte range by then... but hey... there's still time x_x
they havent talked about 3.5" HDD which most of us use today for desktop
Actually in 1998 even 60-80GB was a dream
I don't think 14TB is real for 2020, we will probably hit that in 2015 and I believe something like 50TB will be a reality around 2020.
SSD's will probably be the "name of the game" in consumer stuff, while we will probably have HDD's in our home servers (which will became a normal thing to have around by then) and Datacenters will be still on HDD's (most of the part) and if you believe that the future is THE CLOUD, it is obvious that HDD's will be with us for a long long time. But one again, in our laptops, netbooks and other consumer stuff, SSD's will reign. BTW, local capacity won't be so important as it is now, network bandwidth and secure technologies will allow us to get access to our files from anywhere, anytime, so we will store our files up in the cloud and on our home servers. Business will also store their files in the cloud or on-premise not on the local machines (which will be mostly mobile machines/laptops and most people will work remotely - from home or from the road - by 2020, this is already happening but it will be many times more massive in the future).
Yeah, I still have a 5GB drive that I bought back in the summer of '98. Boy, was that a ton o' space back then! I put it in a PC that had a 1GB primary drive.
[/tin-foil-hat]
It won't matter if HDDs are cheaper if they are more expensive to run. As a mechanical device they have fixed power requirements. Green data centres and increasing pressures to get 8 hour computing from laptops will force SSDs.
It may be true desktops will still use HDDs as they will be "cheaper".
If the Copenhagen treaty passes, yes the beginning of the world is here, but we have the ability to save it, if anyone cares enough...
Just click on the "cached" link if something goes wrong in 2012!
[/tin-foil-hat]
Matrix reference?
1) Desktops using an SSD as a boot drive, where even 32-64GB will do just fine.
2) Laptop use where the sweet spot in terms of storage actually used is between 128GB and 256GB
It's the latter category that will really explode in the next decade to come, completely displacing traditional platter-based HDDs because of their multiple benefits: faster random access, faster sequential access, lower power, no moving parts, dexterity from a fall.
When it comes to laptops, I think power requirements will be the major deciding factor by far.
When it comes to laptops, I think power requirements will be the major deciding factor by far.
Certainly if you're watching that stuff at home, I expect data to be streamed from a home server rather than stored locally, since that's the cheapest way to do it. As for on the road, that really depends on how good wireless networks are in the future. If we can get 8Mbps while on the road reliably from an LTE network as well as 8Mbps uploads from your home, I see no reason to store 1080p HD content locally and instead just stream it from a server at home. But that's 10 years down the road if not a pipe dream.
At the very least, should wireless networks improve to the point where streaming video is possible without congesting the network, laptop storage space doesn't have to balloon like desktop and server storage space need to. Which is why I think my points are still valid.
Did you invent this lie yourself ar are you just spreading someone else's lie?
Bill Gates actually said the sentence shhac mentioned.
You should actually google things before asking: http://is.gd/4D71a
or else
Epic fail!
and why do we need 14TB hard drives? when people don't relay use up 1TB.
most company are trying to reduce the space footprint.
(startrekTNG reference) LOL
and why do we need 14TB hard drives? when people don't relay use up 1TB.
most company are trying to reduce the space footprint.
why do we need 1GB drives? wasn't 850 megs enough?
same thing different decade - **** grows
will also become cheaper, but will reach terminal limits before 2020 keeping the ultra-fast technology from replacing HDDs.
What terminal limits? i dont get it. can someone explain?
unless, of course, we've gone quantum by then... you'd get more information out of an atom, but then again 'terabytes' wouldnt mean alot anymore...
will also become cheaper, but will reach terminal limits before 2020 keeping the ultra-fast technology from replacing HDDs.
What terminal limits? i dont get it. can someone explain?
as in current Flash technology will be reaching it's very utmost limits sometime in the future. you know, kinda like single-core CPUs, or removable magnetic disk-based media?
Ohhhhh, nooooo..... this is so sad.... I really though we would be in the petabyte range by then.... sucks
i think 128GB(+) of DDR3/DDR4 or maybe DDR5!!!
die hdd die
Yeah, people never drop laptops or portable hard drives..... That's why companies started putting in active hard drive protection. The laptop manufacturer needs to support this feature for it to protect the hard drive though
Why hard drives are dead in 2009
I think SSD is the way to go when they fix the amount of available reads issue.
Yeah, after 20 years or so rotflmao. 14TB now costs less than $1,000, buy the same in SSD and you'll pay close to $40,000 and then you don't even have backup storage lol
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