Between June 2022 and October 2023, Bitcoin has been in a bit of a slump but in recent weeks it has managed to start what looks like the early signals of a bull run. Today, the price shot up past $42,000.
This is the first time since April 2022 that this particular crypto has been about $42,000 suggesting that it’s making drastic moves. If these movements were taking place any time in the last decade when interest rates were at record lows, this could confidently be said to be the start of a bull run, unfortunately, more caution is needed this time.
Since Bitcoin was launched in 2009, it missed the last major stock market meltdown which took place between August 2008 and March 2009 when the S&P 500 fell from around 1,300 points to less than 700 points. What we don’t yet know is whether Bitcoin will follow the stock market in the event of a crash or act more like gold and rally higher.
The closest incident we have to the 2008-09 market crash, is the COVID-19 market crash which happened in March 2020. It was an extremely short lived dip but it was significant and in this case Bitcoin followed the S&P 500 - gold declined a little but was mostly flat.
As the two-year and 10-year US bonds are inverted right now, it indicates that the economy will see a recession within 18 months. The yield curve has been inverted for a long time already so that recession might not be too far off.
If the stock markets do fall, it could be around the time that central banks are lowering interest rates but nothing is set in stone. If the markets do plunge, it will be very interesting to see whether Bitcoin follows the markets or not as it will be the first proper opportunity to find out.
None of the above information is intended to be taken as investment advice. Bitcoin is extremely volatile - while it is possible to make a lot of money from it, it"s also possible to lose a lot too. Any investing in this asset should only be done with money you can afford to lose.