Bitcoin has managed to reach $35,198 today before retreating back to the $34,500 range at the time of writing. The development is a bit interesting for two reasons; firstly, it’s the highest the price has been since May 2022, and it’s also the first time since April this year that it managed to cross the three-year moving average.
In previous Bitcoin cycles, the price used to bottom below the three-year moving average, where it has been for most of the last year, then the price usually goes sideways while above the moving average for a while before ‘going to the moon’ when the price gets very high and attracts attention in the media.
As mentioned earlier, it did cross this 1095-day moving average back in April but it proved just to be temporary because after a few days it plunged back below this level - we could see something similar happen this time too, it’s still a bit early to tell.
One of the things that makes this Bitcoin cycle much different to the previous cycles is the fact that a recession is on the table and this could hurt the stock market which Bitcoin does follow some of the time. If there was a crash in the stock market, we could see a drop off in the price of Bitcoin too, for example, it followed the stock market in 2020 during the flash crash caused by COVID-19.
If you know your Bitcoin history well, you probably know that Bitcoin came onto the scene in early 2009 which was a few months after the large stock market crash a few months earlier at the end of 2008. Therefore, if a downturn in the stock market does happen soon, it’s unknown how Bitcoin will react.
Bitcoin will definitely be an asset worth checking in on if there is any type of stock market crash due to its relative newness. With that said, while crashes in the stock market are inevitable, there’s no guarantee we are approaching one until it actually happens so we may have to wait a while to see what does happen.