The analyst company TrendForce has indicated that DRAM and NAND Flash prices could rise by 3-8% in the fourth quarter. It said the price increases will depend on whether producers maintain production cuts and the degree to which there is a resurgence in actual demand - the server market is going to be a ‘critical determinant’.
According to TrendForce, most manufacturers are resistant to any further price reductions and they actually want to see ‘aggressive increases’. It said that PC DDR5 prices already rose in the third quarter and a rise in the fourth quarter will make the hardware cost even more.
On the server side, Samsung has increased its production cutbacks, especially that of server DDR4. TrendForce reports that this has led to a server DDR4 stock supply crunch meaning prices in the segment will inevitably rise.
It said that manufacturers are looking to profit from this reduction in supply by increasing their DDR5 output. Consumers can act as a downward force on prices by shopping around, manufacturers will cut prices where possible to attract customs.
In the last year or so with prices being so high for consumers, they have been buying less computers and phones. With this extra inventory, the need for components such as memory is also not as great so that has acted as a downward force on prices.
A few days ago, Neowin covered Gartner’s report which found that worldwide PC shipments had declined again in the third quarter but that the fourth quarter will see an increase. If shipments do increase this will mean fewer computers in inventories, more production, and DRAM supplies being shifted too.
Breaking things down, TrendForce said desktop DDR4 prices will rise by 0-5% and DDR5 will rise by 3-8%. On the server side, DDR4 prices will remain stable and DDR5 prices are going to continue declining.
It said ‘With DDR5 shipments on the rise and a notable 50-60% price disparity with DDR4, the blended ASP for the range is poised for an upswing. This leads to an estimated 3–8% quarterly hike in Q4 server DRAM contract prices.’
Source: TrendForce