The analyst company IDC has said that it expects global PC shipments to decline by 4.2% this year due to a cooling market. It said things will start to look up in 2024 and 2025, however, as “expanding workload requirements” drive a recovery. Reviewing 2022, IDC said that the year started off strong but by the fourth quarter, unit shipments had fallen 22.2% year-over-year.
Commenting on the forecast, Jay Chou, research manager, Worldwide Client Devices Tracker, said:
“We had four consecutive quarters where shipments exceeded two million units from the second quarter of 2021 through the second quarter of 2022. This was well above historical norms and proved unsustainable in the face of tightened budgets and ongoing inflation. After two years of strong purchases, we expect corporate IT to divert away from endpoint devices and we"ll likely see 2023 volume shrink 4.2%. This is a slight change from our previous forecast which expected a milder contraction. However, beyond the short-term challenges, we believe new model launches, Windows 11 transition, and other drivers should lead to growth from 2024.”
According to IDC, the top OEMs when it came to global PC shipments are Dell, HP, Lenovo, ASUS, and NEC. Of these, Dell (+6.4%), HP (+1.2%), and ASUS (+24.3%) saw their shipments grow in 2022 compared to 2021. On the other hand, Lenovo (-3.2%) and NEC (-22.7%) saw their shipments decline in 2022.
Given the fact that inflation is still not under control, central banks around the world will probably keep hiking rates which will reduce individuals’ disposable income. Organizations will also be under pressure to rein in their spending too with credit being more expensive to access. IDC’s prediction of a recovery in 2024 could be invalidated if inflation is not brought under control by then.