Back in 2008, the gaming industry appeared to be resistant to the current economic situation. But near the end of the year that started to change and the video game industry, just like most others, also fell victim of the credit-crunch. How will this change the industries strategies in 2009? What can we expect from the gaming companies in this New Year? Here are my predictions for 2009 regarding the gaming industry.
One thing that we can expect (unfortunately) is more layoffs. But as I mentioned in one of my previous articles (Technology in danger?), smart individual thinkers really shine during these tough times - so this is a good opportunity for indie game developers and all those geeks who write games in their underpants at night to show what they can really do. This is mostly because big games cost millions to develop and take months or even years to get out the door - money and time that big developers seem to no longer have. So here where the indie devs will come it - with small teams of just 2 or 3 people and the ability to release original titles in 3-4 months, they may gain a large amount of popularity in 2009 which may actually bring a breath of fresh air to the market.
Another shift in industry could be that Nintendo will start targeting more "hard core" gamers and Microsoft, the "casual" gamers. We already saw some of this at E3 2008, where Nintendo announced that Call of Duty (a popular shooter franchises) would be released for Wii during the 2008 holiday season - as an attempt to attract more "hard core" gamers to their system. Microsoft also hinted at this shift in its strategy at E3 by showing games such as In The Movies, Lips, and the release of the 360"s new avatar system. As for Sony... they seem to be focusing on neither, but embracing the creative side with PlayStation Network games like Fat Princess and Flower (both expected to be released in 2009).
Portable gaming is another area that has the potential grow in 2009 due to the fact that they do not require large budgets. Similar to indie games, games for portable system can be released in 3-4 months and also require smaller teams. Many companies may find this quick development life cycle attractive in these troubled times. Nintendo released the DSi, so we are sure to see some interesting things done with it.
As for products and services, rumors in 2008 had it that Sony was working on some sort of break-away motion-sensing controller but we haven"t seen any real evidence of it and I have a feeling that we won"t see it in 2009 either. Nintendo also introduced the Wii-motion plus in E3, but we haven"t seen any more of it. I expect to start seeing new Wii games that come bundled with this come Q2 2009. Digital distribution may also have a larger impact than some of us may imagine. By allowing users to download games directly to their consoles not only does it allow the end-user to get the game at a cheaper price, but it also eliminates the middle-man (aka: retailer) and the ability to sell back your old games (action for which the gaming industry actually looses money) - so decreasing the percentage of re-sold games seems like a plausible target most gaming companies may want to go after. Digital distribution of movies also seem to be on the rise. With Microsoft recent partnership with NetFlix, the PlayStation Network releasing a movie store and now Nintendo announcing a television channel for the Wii, it seems like we can expect move movie+gaming partnerships as 2009 goes on.
Many industry experts have compared the gaming industry to the movie industry back during the great depression - indie films gained great popularity while Hollywood struggled to stay alive. I believe that this will be the case of this industry, and if history has thought us anything, it"s that small companies thrive while big ones attempt to survive.