The first half of 2002 has been an eerily quiet period for the computer experts on watch for worms and viruses, leaving some to trumpet their effectiveness even as their predictions of doom are now looking overblown.
Nobody has a bullet-proof explanation, but theories range from the introduction of enhanced anti-virus software to stiffer anti-hacker laws to more vigilant computer users.
Last year, security experts calculate, the Code Red, Nimda and Sircam worms caused billions of dollars worth of damage, knocking out computer networks for days and forcing companies to scramble for patches to prevent recurring attacks. In 2001, F-Secure issued nine "Level One" virus warnings, a label it uses to signify the most damaging outbreaks. This year the number is zero, Hypponen said.
Other monitoring firms report similar findings. UK-based Sophos Anti-Virus is detecting 600 to 700 new virus types per month, nearly half as many as a year ago, said Graham Cluley, a senior technical consultant at Sophos. Ohio-based security firm Central Command reported a month-on-month decline in July. Other firms say the number of viruses in circulation remains steady compared to last year, but the infection rate has declined, which suggests that preventative measures and new security software are proving effective.