Where will smartphones be in five years time?

By peacemf
in Hardware Hangout

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Grand Master

Ice_Blue

Posted
Posted

I think we've hit a plateau in phones and will see very little difference 5 years from now.

Well, if you had been asked the same question five years ago, would your response have been the same?

Grand Master

theyarecomingforyou

Posted
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I reckon that flip phones will make a comeback with the availability of flexible touch-screens, which will allow phones to shrink in size but feature larger screens. The next revolution is a little further off and will come with Google's smart glasses, which will connect wirelessly to a phone in your pocket and move the market away from touch interfaces. They will allow you to use your hands to interact with your phone without touching it (like the way Kinect tracks hand movements). Screen size will be irrelevant because the glasses will feature effectively infinite sized displays due to the proximity to your eyes and phones will finally start to become smaller again.

Until then we'll continue to see phones increase in size until they peak around 5", with mobile-enabled tablets moving down to the same size to meet them - tablets and phones will be a continuous product, rather than separate items (already true to some extent). Android phones will continue to feature bleeding edge technology that will not be properly utilised, while Microsoft and Apple will remain behind the curve but focus more on the user experience and marketing.

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p1p3

Posted
Posted

I'm hoping for large improvement in speech recognition and natural language processing. Getting rid of the keyboard once and for all would increase productivity on the go. Coupled with discreet eye displays and more natural speech synthesis could change the way we interact with smart devices.

Add to this electronics that need less power and faster reliable internet connections and we can move a lot of data processing into the cloud to increase battery life.

Grand Master

theyarecomingforyou

Posted
Posted
I'm hoping for large improvement in speech recognition and natural language processing.

Considering that Dragon NaturallySpeaking has been going for over 15yrs and progress has been slow-at-best I think that's overly optimistic. That's without even taking into account the awkwardness of talking to yourself in public, as well as the obvious lack of privacy such a system entails. I'm sure it will continue to improve but I'm not sure we'll see it become the primary input method for core functionality, not without massive breakthroughs in artificial intelligence.

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p1p3

Posted
Posted

Considering that Dragon NaturallySpeaking has been going for over 15yrs and progress has been slow-at-best I think that's overly optimistic. That's without even taking into account the awkwardness of talking to yourself in public, as well as the obvious lack of privacy such a system entails. I'm sure it will continue to improve but I'm not sure we'll see it become the primary input method for core functionality, not without massive breakthroughs in artificial intelligence.

Dragon NaturallySpeaking is primarily focused on dictating. I think the key here is natural language processing in the cloud utilizing large databases that are shared among all users. Just look at how far we have already gotten. Apple and Google both have working but somewhat crude systems available. Wolfram Alpha works most of the time and we recently had a computer from IBM compete in and win a game of Jeopardy.

The problem with speaking in public will disappear once the technology is working and people get used to it. Nobody thinks it awkward to hold a normal phone conversation in public, once the technology has matured enough the difference will hopefully be minimal.

Unfortunately I'm afraid you are right and we wont have this level of sophistication in five years... one can always dream.

Community Regular

THolman Veteran

Posted
  • Veteran
Posted

I agree about the plateau, I can't even really see how the next gen can improve, let alone in two or three gens time. I think we're a VERY long way off embedded devices (under skin, etc), looking at way over 10 years unless something radical happens with battery technology soon.

I know this is a bit off topic, but you know, I find it disturbing that we're even talking about 'embedded devices,' let alone like it's a bad thing that we don't all have them :wacko:

As far as 'glasses' technology goes, I think it's totally ridiculous. Maybe something will change my mind on that, and I'll sound silly for saying this, but I put that kind of tech on about the same level as '3D.'

Veteran

moloko

Posted
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The super long iphone and huge android jokes are getting stale.

Now I do not see that big of changes lately. Little things like better batteries by then so phones will be a bit lighter. Better screens will be more common in even low end phones. I see the 3D phase is already gone (thankfully). In five years I see iOS and Android going through a big revision on each side. I think there will be a standard for wireless bill paying here in the USA. I know they have had it in other places for a while...HK has had this for over 10 years now on their phones.

What I like to know is what the CARRIERS will be doing in 5 years.!!

Experienced

ShMaunder

Posted
Posted

I do wonder if flexible screen technology will be advanced enough for usage in 5 years. If so then I could see as theyarecomingforyou mentioned, some kind of flip/slide/fold phone that can double up as a tablet or something.

Yea, I've not heard anything else about it, I was looking forward to that

http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android

I have a feeling this is going to come to light sooner than later and that the recent abrupt killing of Moto's Webtop software is related. If Google release support for this in the next Android, that will potentially see a huge shake up. They may offer only ChromeOS officially (with Ubuntu as a 3rd party replacement) - considering the rumours that ChromeOS & Android are merging and ChromeOS is getting ARM support I wouldn't be too surprised.

Mentor

UKDarkJedi

Posted
Posted

I know this is a bit off topic, but you know, I find it disturbing that we're even talking about 'embedded devices,' let alone like it's a bad thing that we don't all have them :wacko:

As far as 'glasses' technology goes, I think it's totally ridiculous. Maybe something will change my mind on that, and I'll sound silly for saying this, but I put that kind of tech on about the same level as '3D.'

It might be off topic but it's a good discussion point. I can still remember the time before touchscreen with all too much blistered thumb clarity, and that was just over 5 years ago really. I think definitely in the next five years we'll be seeing more "wearable" devices, and maybe not embedded as such but it will be a much more personal experience. And then a few more years down the line true embedded, maybe in the early 2020's, think the EyePhone futurama episode lol.

Grand Master

Hardcore Til I Die

Posted
Posted

Apple will be run to the ground in 5 years and if they aren't, their phones will be 3 years behind in technology.

Just got an iPhone 5 having used a Galaxy S3 since May, and before that, a Galaxy S2.

The iPhone 5 is a lot faster and smoother, and better for my needs. I still love Android but the iPhone experience is much smoother.

I used to say that the iPhone was behind as well, but having used one now, I have to say that's not true.

Mentor

iwod

Posted
Posted

I dont think there will be any significant difference. LTE Advance may be available. SoC performance ( CPU and GPU ) will basically be limited by transistor count and power usage. i.e pretty much limited by processing node. We should be 10nm by then. iPhone 5 screen according to technical analysis is already the best out there in terms of consumer devices. OLED will be great but unless they can get in cell OLED and life expectancy improved 5 year may be too early for it. Corning will properly have a even thinner, tougher, and more transparent glass by then. Camera will see improvement with 2nd Gen BSI, I am not sure what else can be done if we are still limited to such thin and small sensors. Most of it will come from a lot better and efficient DSP from software side. But in terms of optics i dont think there is much that can be done. Better Lens would have properly cost too much. A Bigger Sensor could easily solve some of the problems but it would be hard smart phone are getting thinner.

Most of these are major technical breakthrough for what it has improved and achieve within the power / space budget. But we properly just cross or close to the line of whether these are noticeable.

The biggest improvement in 5 years time would properly comes from battery tech.

Grand Master

Xerxes

Posted
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new+iphone+6+phone.jpg

I was thinking along those lines too, but more like this Seiko from Final Fantasy: Spirits Within:

post-44573-0-10107000-1348737626.jpg

post-44573-0-00744900-1348738252.jpg

I seriously doubt we'll see tech anywhere near that in 5 years...maybe 15 or 20 years from now (if ever). Can only hope :happy: and yes, that is technically a watch not a phone..but still cool and could be used as a phone anyway.

Grand Master

+Dick Montage Subscriber²

Posted
  • Subscriber²
Posted

If we weren't all such "spec monkeys" and wanting to show off our devices, I think we'd move towards an ubiquitous invisible computer device. Something that we wear akin to a watch or keep "nearby". Maybe use the device when we're out and about, but when we get home it detects our keyboard/display/etc and utilises that.

Grand Master

lnmnky

Posted
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I agree with Nik,

I want dockable phones or seemless integration also.. A dockable small (sub 4inch) phone, into a desktop monitor, or smaller tablet or wirelessly to a wrist unit would be great.

So when I'm in the office at work I can check simple tasks on my watch and leave my phone safely in my backpack or drawer. At home I can plug it straight into my larger monitor and do emails and browsing on a standard keyboard. The phone UI would have to cope with these different modes smoothly. I don't just want a big phone on my monitor.

The phone itself could just be a black box for all I care. Like an Onyx obelisk mini-server that just sits there.

Actually, the way things are going, why have the phone unit at all. Just the watch please for outside use. Then it syncs with thin-client at home throughout the day.

Actually... it doesn't even need to sync, it's allway on line using the same cloud files.

If I need to type anything, then next largest item I have on me is my wallet. So in my wallet I have a foldable double-credit-card sized screen I can use.

Grand Master

x-byte

Posted
Posted

I think MS's vision is something we can expect at some time. The phone concept is at about 2:20.

The size probably will not change, but more the thickness and the screen that use more of the surface area. Might even use all of it. What will change the most is the services and usage for the phone. Almost everybody own a smart phone today. It will become the most central thing in our life for sure. From payment to controlling your house. Not everything will come as soon as 5 years, but some of it.

Grand Master

AJerman

Posted
Posted

I think that it's fairly obvious to me that phones will become your primary personal computer. They will get to a point where they reach the power level of any other computer, and we'll end up docking our phones to a monitor, keyboard, and mouse and have our full system running, with a mobile interface when on the phone's screen to still access all your data, but in a finger friendly way. Like Webtop, but not slow as **** and actually useful. Webtop is a good example of phones already headed that way, and I think with a little more power, it's quite a realistic expectation. I could definitely see this happening in the next 5 years, but maybe a little longer. Look at how far phones have come in the last 5 years. I don't see any sign of a plateau that other's speak of. We're constantly releasing new versions of mobile OSes with more and more features, phones are continuing to get more powerful, in fact, they seem like they are gaining power faster than they have in the past. We just went dual core, less than 2 years ago, then quad core Cortex A9 and dual core A15(ish), quad core A15 is coming very soon and x86 is starting to see an appearance in the mobile world. I think x86 may succeed in the mobile market as well, but it won't push out ARM. In fact, I think mobile computing in the next 5 years will also push the ARM architecture to more mainstream computing. We're seeing the power of ARM cores grow incredibly fast, similar to how x86 CPUs did. The efficiency and power savings will make 8 and 16 core ARM chips common in desktop computing as well.

5 years can sound like it's not that far down the road, but at the same time, it can feel like a LONG time. 5 years ago, most smart phones were around 500 MHz, had about 128, or maybe 192 MB of RAM, and had terrible resistive touch screens. Then the iPhone came out and lit a fire under the ass of the smartphone industry. There's no telling what the next 5 years will bring, but I'm certain it'll be exciting.

Veteran

greenwizard88

Posted
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in 5 years, Windows Phone X will be Windows X, and when you get home you dock your phone and it becomes your PC. In fact, the Windows Phone and Windows binaries will be identical, with the single differentiating factor being that if your phone is not docked, the "Desktop" tile disappears and all non-metro apps enter a suspended state.

Apps will be universal, and any non-universal Windows Phone app will appear in Windows as a normal app, but in that 1/3 of the screen... metro snap thing that's going on.

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