SpaceX Updates (Thread 7)

[Draggendrop Veteran]

1 minute ago, John. said:

seems Arianespace is limited payload-wise? No way they'll be able to compete once Heavy is proven and the launch prices tumble

Yes, I am sure they will come around eventually, they are too good not to. There are a lot of very good launchers now, and this competition will drive prices down and force launchers to be innovative. The launchers and the customers win.

 

 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Personal mini observation....

 

Over the last year, I have noticed a few writers (will not name) at SpaceNews, that, IMO, do not have a neutral stance, but lean heavily towards ULA, and, IMO, a few of their readers comments doing the same, till a few (some being NSF) come on line to correct their inaccuracies.

 

During the Orbcomm landing, I did not post right away, but monitored the space news feeds to get an idea of how others judged this accomplishment. This is when I caught a particular writer posting an article on SpaceNews, which I felt was really trying to understate the landing and bordering on derogatory. I was about to go online and give them my 2 cents worth, when a virtual flood of readers came on line and "tore his comments to pieces". In fact, in less than 10 minutes, the article was pulled, and another writer wrote a piece befitting of the accomplishment.

 

The readers are the customers and they spoke, and they "vote" by what they read...hence....karma...

 

The 15 most-read Stories of 2015     (at SpaceNews)

 

Quote

Nine of the 15 most-read stories of 2015 were, in one way or another, about SpaceX.

 This was an enjoyable read....

http://spacenews.com/the-15-most-read-stories-of-2015/

 

[DocM]

Arianespace's big problem is having to dual-manifest Ariane V in order to make their business case. A single payload launch won't pay for it unless it's something like the James Webb Space Telescope where NASA will write nearly blank checks.

 

Ariane 6 is a single manifest payable bird, but with Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy reusability now a factor it too is at risk before it translates off the CAD screen. Hell, a reusable Falcon Heavy may undercut a disposable Falcon 9.

 

They have a serious problem unless they stop A6 now and run with the Airbus reusable propulsion module concept. No sign of the political will for that, yet.

 

 

[BetaguyGZT]

12 minutes ago, DocM said:

Arianespace's big problem is having to dual-manifest Ariane V in order to make their business case. A single payload launch won't pay for it unless it's something like the James Webb Space Telescope where NASA will write nearly blank checks.

 

Ariane 6 is a single manifest payable bird, but with Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy reusability now a factor it too is at risk before it translates off the CAD screen. Hell, a reusable Falcon Heavy may undercut a disposable Falcon 9.

 

They have a serious problem unless they stop A6 now and run with the Airbus reusable propulsion module concept. No sign of the political will for that, yet.

 

 

I respectfully disagree, in part. I think Falcon 9 will have a place after FH comes on-line, at least until designs utilizing Methane/LOX are flight-proven and have several missions under their belt. The CRS Missions alone can fly until 2025 at minimum, and that's even if the USA pulls out -- SpaceX is always willing to sit and talk to anyone wanting to do business.  Elon's always happy to make a buck.

[DocM]

F9/FH will not go methane as that would require going to 5 meter tanks, a new Octaweb, engine devlopment, a full USAF recert etc.

 

Note I said a reusable FH v a disposable F9. F9 costs $62+ million and a lower spec FH about $85 million. Not that big a gap, so a reusable FH may well cost <$60 million. That said, apples vs apples a reusable F9 may cost about $40-45 million. Or much less if they can be reused 10 times.

[BetaguyGZT]

2 minutes ago, DocM said:

F9/FH will not go methane as that would require going to 5 meter tanks, a new Octaweb, engine devlopment, a full USAF recert etc.

 

Note I said a reusable FH v a disposable F9. F9 costs $62+ million and a lower spec FH about $85 million. Not that big a gap, so a reusable FH may well cost <$60 million. That said, apples vs apples a reusable F9 may cost about $40-45 million.

Right, right. I didn't mean that F9/FH would be going Methane/LOX, just that F9 could be used in lieu of FH when appropriate to the Mission (such as CRS). We're talking down the road, FX and FHX designs.

 

SpaceX is only getting started.  

[Draggendrop Veteran]

4 out of the 5 main contributors to the ISS are already committed long term, ESA will come around (EU politics). Some one has to supply it, SpaceX might as well have it's part, including crew transfer.

 

I like to think of F9 and FH primarily for "local use", although capable of more, mission dependent. The methane toys, I like to think as the  "real mission" haulers...can't wait for news on that front....

[BetaguyGZT]

1 hour ago, Draggendrop said:

4 out of the 5 main contributors to the ISS are already committed long term, ESA will come around (EU politics). Some one has to supply it, SpaceX might as well have it's part, including crew transfer.

 

I like to think of F9 and FH primarily for "local use", although capable of more, mission dependent. The methane toys, I like to think as the  "real mission" haulers...can't wait for news on that front....

And what toys those beauties will be ... And it's a safe bet that the 7.5m sizes will be capable of 35T payloads to GTO on a bad day.  

[DocM]

7.5 meter? SpaceX Cores? Try double that. 

[DocM]

This would be 3 Falcon Heavy launches this year; flight demo, USAF STP-2 and ViaSat -2

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by DocM

[DocM]

Added to this springs launch cadence,

 

April 2016: Falcon 9 FT from Vandenberg SLC-4E

 

Payloads: Taiwan's FORMOSAT 5 Earth observation satellite to a 98.28° sun synchronous orbit and  Spaceflight Inc's SHERPA SSO tug/dispenser with 80+ cubesats including; Planetary Resources Arkyd-6 asteroid hunter testbed, CNUSail 1 solar sail, Finland's Aalto-1, S. Korea's KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA and more.

 

Whew....busy-busy

Edited January 11, 2016 by DocM

[Beittil]

Aw nice, Arkyd-6 also... thats pretty fast considering Arkyd-3 was less than a year ago (had their first one not been blown to bits by Antares)!

[DocM]

Neat. One would be tempted to dismiss Zaptec except for the fact they have an office in NASA Ames, which has been the driving force for the Red Dragon mission, and are working with ESA. Among others. 

 

Red Dragon would be a Dragon 2 propulsive landing on Mars, launched by a Falcon Heavy, as one of their Mars colonization precursor missions. This would be in conjunction with NASA who would provide additional experiments and other mission support. The most often cited payloads are a sample return mission (via a silo launched rocket exiting the upper hatch) or a geologic drill for core sampling.

 

The next launch windows are 2018 and 2020.

 

Main: http://zaptec.com/

ZapSpace: http://zaptec.com/zapspace/

 

http://youtu.be/QmSJlgI04PA

 

 

 

 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

 

[BetaguyGZT]

14 hours ago, DocM said:

Neat. One would be tempted to dismiss Zaptec except for the fact they have an office in NASA Ames, which has been the driving force for the Red Dragon mission, and are working with ESA. Among others. 

 

Red Dragon would be a Dragon 2 propulsive landing on Mars, launched by a Falcon Heavy, as one of their Mars colonization precursor missions. This would be in conjunction with NASA who would provide additional experiments and other mission support. The most often cited payloads are a sample return mission (via a silo launched rocket exiting the upper hatch) or a geologic drill for core sampling.

 

The next launch windows are 2018 and 2020.

 

Main: http://zaptec.com/

ZapSpace: http://zaptec.com/zapspace/

 

http://youtu.be/QmSJlgI04PA

 

 

 

 

NOW WE'RE TALKING! DRILL, BABY, DRILL! /robinwilliams

 

Seriously, that's the business end of some interesting science. They have to send some of those puppies. Core samplers, the whole works. RTG-Powered too. Colony One's (and Two, and Three, and ...) future depends on those findings ...

 

No, really. It's gotta happen. PLEASE, SpaceX. Send RedDragons. /beg/ I'll make you folks Chili and Cornbread. The whole Team. You haven't lived until you've had Michigan Chili-n-Cornbread. And Coney Dogs. We invented Coney Dogs. Pleeeeeease ... /beg

 

 

[+John. Subscriber¹]

 

 

Spacex just released new footage of the Falcon 9 launch and landing with a new video. It's brilliant!

[Draggendrop Veteran]

43 minutes ago, John. said:

Spacex just released new footage of the Falcon 9 launch and landing with a new video. It's brillant!

Excellent video...Thank's for posting it +John

[Draggendrop Veteran]

 

[DocM]

Guess the USAF and FAA are on board. Especially the FAA since Dragon is testing new hardware for them which will integrate spacecraft and launches into the US Air Traffic Control System. Been going on for well over a year.

[DocM]

 

 

 

Yessss!!

[DocM]

It'll happen at LC-40. Pic of Stage being transported,

 

[bguy_1986]

It's already been sitting at the hanger at LC-40 right?  That pic is an older pic from a day or too after it landed?

 

Next pic we should see is it on the train (forget the correct term) for the short ride up the hill to LC-40 correct?

 

[PaulRocket]

2 hours ago, DocM said:

It'll happen at LC-40. Pic of Stage being transported,

 

I heard it's vertical already, so it might really happen today.

[BetaguyGZT]

Likely tomorrow or the day after. There are checks and procedures, then they need to fuel it up, etc. It's a process. And you can bet they're going to be extra careful with this one.

[PaulRocket]

8 minutes ago, Unobscured Vision said:

Likely tomorrow or the day after. There are checks and procedures, then they need to fuel it up, etc. It's a process. And you can bet they're going to be extra careful with this one.

Ok good to know! 

Yeah, it would be kind of embarrassing if something were to go wrong. 

After the static fire, what do you guys think of SpaceX using one of the engines for SES-9 or CRS-8 or something after that? Just use one engine and collect some more data...