SpaceX Updates (Thread 7)

[DocM]

Whatever SES wants, SES gets. They have 2 more birds in the queue; SES-10 & SES-11.

 

http://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/707686924102803456

 

Shotwell: we’ll likely launch Falcon 9 from LC-39A before the Falcon Heavy initial launch there. SES interested in launching there. #satshow

 

[DocM]

http://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/707686382039392257

 

Quote

Shotwell: the LOX issues we experiences on SES-9 launch attempts, while painful then, is definitely behind us now. #satshow

[DocM]

@jeff_foust

Quote

Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX: expect first Falcon Heavy launch now late this year, three more to follow in subsequent 6 months. #satshow

 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

 

What do you think Doc...maybe SES with a CRS-8 S1...?     

 

 

 

 

[DocM]

I'm thinking SES-10's booster reused on SES-11.

[DocM]

@StephenClark1
SpaceXs Shotwell: Id like to see a 30% reduction in Falcon 9 launch prices with reused first stage. 2nd stage still not reused. #SATShow

[DocM]

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/707682167112011776

 

@pbdes (Space News)

SpaceX's Shotwell: the Falcon 9 first stage we recovered was in remarkable shape.

Goal is no refurbishment.

#satellite2016[/quote]

[Beittil]

Shotwell had a, imho, very optimistic launch cadence in mind for this year imho.

 

18 launches this year, 2 down 16 to go. But barely 8 months left to do the remaining 16, now with SpaceX's habbit of slipping on technical nitpicking more often than not... I call that optimistic, opinions?

[SALSN]

1 hour ago, Beittil said:

Shotwell had a, imho, very optimistic launch cadence in mind for this year imho.

 

18 launches this year, 2 down 16 to go. But barely 8 months left to do the remaining 16, now with SpaceX's habbit of slipping on technical nitpicking more often than not... I call that optimistic, opinions?

I think it is optimistic but doable, they have to ramp up launches, but that have probably been the plan all along. And the more launches they do, the more kinks they get ironed out, thus scrubs will probably become more and more rare.
They just introduced a new version of the falcon 9, so a little bit of introduction problems, like the LOX issue last time is to be expected, but as the tweet says somewhere above, that should be handled now.

[FloatingFatMan]

6 hours ago, SALSN said:

like the LOX issue last time is to be expected, but as the tweet says somewhere above, that should be handled now.

At least until the next bonehead wanders into the exclusion zone, anyway...

 

[PaulRocket]

12 hours ago, DocM said:

I'm thinking SES-10's booster reused on SES-11.

Isn't SES-10 expected to be just as difficult as SES-9? Sure they probably won't have to due that special inclination so they get to their orbit earlier but still a very tough mission... You think they could pull it of?

[DocM]

1 hour ago, PaulRocket said:

Isn't SES-10 expected to be just as difficult as SES-9? Sure they probably won't have to due that special inclination so they get to their orbit earlier but still a very tough mission... You think they could pull it of?

That 'get it there before our investors report' trajectory is what made the landing hard to impossible. Not so much with SES-10.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

recap article...

 

SpaceX says reusable stage could cut prices 30 percent, plans November Falcon Heavy debut

 

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said the company would launch 18 times in 2016, including the two already completed, with the first Falcon Heavy launch in November. She said a 30% price drop for Falcon 9 launches with a previously used first stage should be possible. Credit: SpaceNews file photo

 

Quote

NATIONAL HARBOR, Maryland – SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on March 9 said the company expected to conduct 16 more launches this year, including an inaugural Falcon Heavy rocket in November, and would accelerate its launch rhythm in 2017.

 

Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX has made lavish forecasts in the past and has come up short. But the company has now launched, twice, the Falcon 9 Upgrade rocket and has not announced any major enhancements for the coming months. A stable product line makes it easier to accelerate launch cadence.

 

Addressing the Satellite 2016 conference here, organized by Access Intelligence, Shotwell said launching 18 times this year – two launches have already occurred – will not be a stretch, and that the launch rate could increase to 24 or more in 2017.

 

Shotwell’s 2016 launch rate estimate was not surprising given her previous statements. But her conservative estimate of the savings to come when Falcon 9 first stages are recovered and reused was notable.

 

Given that SpaceX has no intention, for now, of recovering the second stage, she said a launch with a previously used first stage could be priced 30 percent less than the current Falcon 9 rockets.

 

SES of Luxembourg, SpaceX’s biggest backer among the large commercial satellite fleet operators, has said it wants to be the first customer to fly with a reused stage. But SES Chief Executive Karim Michel Sabbagh said here March 8 that SES wanted a 50 percent price cut, to around $30 million, in return for pioneering the reusable version.

 

Shotwell said it was too early to set precise prices for a reused Falcon 9, but that if the fuel on the first stage costs $1 million or less, and a reused first stage could be prepared for reflight for $3 million or so, a price reduction of 30 percent – to around $40 million – should be possible.

 

Shotwell’s appearance here punctuated the changed atmosphere between the U.S. Air Force and SpaceX. A year ago, the company was just coming off a legal battle with the Air Force centered on the U.S. military’s use of the United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket, and on how Air Force rocket-purchase decisions are made.

 

Since then, the two parties have reached an understanding and SpaceX is now competing for an Air Force contract whose award Shotwell said should be announced in the coming weeks.

 

She said it would be the first contract that has been fully competed under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) procurement program since 2006. “It’s great,” she said. “The world is a new place. We have a great partnership with the U.S. Air Force.”

 

The first use of the Falcon 9 Upgrade rocket occurred in November, for the launch into low Earth orbit of 11 small communications satellites for Orbcomm Inc. of Rochelle Park, New Jersy. SpaceX was able to return the first stage to a landing zone near the launch pad.

 

Shotwell said she visited the stage and was impressed with how little wear and tear it showed.

 

“[Y]ou pull off the cover and that wire harness is pristine,” she said. “The metal is still shiny. You pull off the thermal protection system that we have near the engine, and that engine is beautiful. It is perfectly clean.

 

“It was extraordinary how great it looked. In fact we didn’t refurbish it at all. We inspected it and then three days later we put it on the test stand and fired it again. The goal is not to design a vehicle that needs refurbishing. It is to design a vehicle that we can land, move back to the launch pad, and launch again. Hopefully our customers will get comfortable flying the third or fourth time.”

 

The December launch of the inaugural Falcon 9 Upgrade rocket went smoothly. But the latest launch – the first with a heavy telecommunications satellite intended for geostationary orbit – faced three last-minute launch cancellations and one launch abort before a successful liftoff on March 4.

Shotwell said the learning curve at the SpaceX launch installation – the ground system, not the rocket – was steep as the company negotiated the transfer of supercooled liquid oxygen (LOX) to the vehicle. Chilling results in a denser, slush-like fuel that takes less volume than conventional cryogenic oxygen, allowing SpaceX to load more of it and generate the power and speed necessary for geostationary-orbit satellites.

 

“We identified problems with our chilled LOX,” Shotwell. “For Orbcomm we did not have these problems. We were actually using a different LOX tank. And then we added additional tanks for extra capacity [for the latest mission]. We didn’t overcome it for the first two attempts so we switched back to the original tank that we used for Orbcomm. Then we had to wait for a boat on the third attempt, there was a boat in the way. And then the fourth attempt was upper-level winds.

 

“We got it off on attempt number five. So we had five attempts in eight days. And there’s no question but that the LOX issue, while painful for SES, was a kind of minor thing and it’s definitely behind us.

 

Shotwell said SpaceX does not need to start use of Launch Complex 39A at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, spaceport to help work through its backlog. That launch pad will be used for the Falcon Heavy rocket, however.

 

“We don’t need to have Pad 39A operational this year to get caught up on the manifest,” Shotwell said. “But I do think we are probably going to launch a Falcon 9 before we do the Falcon Heavy in November. SES actually wants to fly from 39A so we are going to see if we can get that ready for SES-10 and maybe SES-11.”

 

The SES-10 and SES-11 commercial telecommunications satellites, owned by SES, are scheduled for launch late this year.

http://spacenews.com/spacex-says-reusable-stage-could-cut-prices-by-30-plans-first-falcon-heavy-in-november/

 

[DocM]

They can launch F9 without some of the 'necessary for FH' items on their to do list.

 

Part of the delay to November is a 2 month closure of the Eastern Range for updates and maintenance. This closure was to start later this spring, but it being moved right to this summer impacted late summer/early fall launches like the FH debut.

 

Still, it'll give SpaceX time to finish off LC-39A's more FH oriented work.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

9 minutes ago, DocM said:

They can launch F9 without some of the 'necessary for FH' items on their to do list.

 

Part of the delay to November is a 2 month closure of the Eastern Range for updates and maintenance. This closure was to start later this spring, but it being moved right to this summer impacted late summer/early fall launches like the FH debut.

 

Still, it'll give SpaceX time to finish off LC-39A's more FH oriented work.

Will the maintenance closure time effect SLC-40 operations with the cadence ramp up..?

[Beittil]

Well of course it will, no launches at all from any pad at the cape during that period.

[DocM]

AARRRGGGHHHH....had a brain fart.

 

It's the Western range (Vandy) closing down this summer, but the FH delays from continuing 39A construction are still in place. 

[Draggendrop Veteran]

5 hours ago, Beittil said:

Well of course it will, no launches at all from any pad at the cape during that period.

May have been a miscommunication on my part.

 

On the statement that the Eastern Range, at the Cape, may be shut down, which was found to be in error later, was actually shocking, hence my question to Doc...

 

10 hours ago, Draggendrop said:

Will the maintenance closure time effect SLC-40 operations with the cadence ramp up..?

This was initially shocking due to...

 

The operations at the Eastern Range have drastically changed the last decade or so. The influx of commercial launchers has drastically altered operations and procedures there.

 

The FAA, 45th Space Wing and NRO, in various combinations, payload specific, are the sole responsibility for safety of "launches".

 

The pads are a different story due to the individual commercial lease agreements. The government owns the land and the lease holder has their responsibilities such as...

Quote

FAA-licensed Commercial Launch Site Operator:

Manage range infrastructure, to include leasing agreements, transportation  infrastructure (airport runways, ramps and hangars; roads, ports and docks); electrical, water, storm drain, sewer; security (perimeter/off-shore); propellant, commodity and explosive storage facilities; tool calibration and chemical analysis labs, etc.

http://www.zerognews.com/2013/07/14/eastern-range-er-and-cape-canaveral-air-force-station-ccafs-spaceport-concept/

The above link is a few years old, but similar quotes are available from multiple sites...easy cut/paste for me on this one to put a point forward.

 

In this case, operators such as ULA, Boeing, BO shortly and SpaceX with 2 pads, have all the pad responsibility for their lease agreement, which would also include prior approved structure tear downs and/or modifications. Since the pads are a "floating island" of the launchers responsibility, the land owner would be responsible generally for main feeds to pad proximity, lease dependent, such as utilities and road infrastructure.

 

The only way the total Eastern Range would be shut down, for that length of time, would be for a very serious matter, such as a disaster from flooding/storm damage from a hurricane or short interruptions due to laying new pipe and or lines as an example. The legal implications for a complete, prolonged shutdown, for normal maintenance, would be huge.

 

Doc would have a better handle on this....but it is a very serious matter for extended shutdowns of that length, at this location.

 

[DocM]

Western range may be down for 6 months while they change FTS systems to be automated, move people boxes around, and upgrade other things. 

[DocM]

Falcon Heavy bits in the composites room

 

Interstage, FH side booster nose cone and F9 ABS/Eutelsat fairing halves - one on stands, being worked on by a robot.

 

Hawthorne is like a space fans candy store

 

 

Edited March 12, 2016 by DocM

[BetaguyGZT]

After the ugliness of Chicago tonight, this one brings a smile to my face, thanks @DocM.  

[Draggendrop Veteran]

It's nice to actually see some FH candy...Thanks much....

[Draggendrop Veteran]

Here is "The Falcon has landed" patch, purported to be "official", but not actually confirmed. Thought it was neat .....

 

 

[DocM]

The launch rates going into overdrive after CRS-8

 

http://spaceflightnow.com/2016/03/20/spacex-hopes-to-raise-launch-tempo-after-space-station-flight/

 

SpaceX hopes to raise launch tempo after space station flight

>
> (CRS-8 rehash
>
SpaceXs first cargo resupply contract signed in 2008 has been extended from 12 logistics missions to 20 flights, according to NASA. Orbital ATK, the other U.S. company currently flying supplies to the space station, initially had a contract for eight launches, and now is on the hook for 10 flights.

 

Both companies, plus newcomer Sierra Nevada Corp., won a fresh round of contracts with NASA in January to deliver cargo to the space station through 2024. The follow-on agreements guarantee each of the space transport providers at least six resupply missions to the space station.

 

SpaceX aims for up to 18 launches before the end of the year, three times more than the number of successful missions the company achieved in 2015.

 

We hope to grow year-over-year, said Gwynne Shotwell, president of SpaceX. We only launched for half a year last year, and we still did six (successful) launches. This year, well probably do about 18, and well increase 30 to 50 percent year-over-year.
>
> (rehash of CRS-9 LOX tank issue,)
>
In parallel with final preparations ahead of the April 8 resupply launch to the space station, technicians from SpaceX and Space Systems/Loral are preparing the Japanese JCSAT 14 television broadcasting satellite for liftoff on a Falcon 9 rocket later in April.

 

Owned by Tokyo-based SKY Perfect JSAT Corp., JCSAT 14 was delivered to Cape Canaveral from its SSL factory in Palo Alto, California, earlier this month.

 

The tandem launch of Boeing-built communications satellites for Asia Broadcast Satellite and Eutelsat will follow in early May, the second of a two-launch deal with lightweight all-electric propulsion spacecraft that dispense of the need for heavy conventional chemical propellants for orbital maneuvers.

 

Tom Choi, CEO of ABS, told Spaceflight Now that the mission has a preliminary launch date of May 3.

 

Falcon 9 missions scheduled for launch through July include two flights from Vandenberg Air Force Base with Taiwans Formosat 5 Earth observation satellite and the first set of next-generation mobile communications satellites for Iridium.

 

Cape Canaveral could host at least three more Falcon 9 flights through the end of July with the Thaicom 8 telecom payload, the ninth operational Dragon cargo flight to the space station, and the Israeli Amos 6 communications craft.

 

SpaceX aims to make its first launch from Cape Canaverals launch pad 39A, a reconfigured Apollo- and shuttle-era facility, before the end of the year, Shotwell said.

 

We dont need to have pad 39A operational this year to get caught up on the manifest, but I do think were probably going to launch a Falcon 9 single stick from 39A before we do the Heavy in November, Shotwell said.

 

The top candidates for the first Falcon 9 launch pad from pad 39A are flights with the Airbus-made SES 10 and SES 11 communications satellites in October and November, she said.

[Draggendrop Veteran]

bits and bytes...

 

Overview article on the next 2 launches...

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/03/spacex-prepares-two-missions-mcgregor/

 

picture of a model of FH at GDC conference

https://imgur.com/a/546qG

 

OCISLY images for 21 March 2016

http://johnkrausphotos.com/ocisly-march-21-2016/