Apple is in a freefall.

[blank]

21 minutes ago, DoctorD said:

When they did they purchased this tiny little upstart company called Motorola for a meager 12 Billion and sold in last year for under 3 billion.  See where I said bled cash applies. 

yeah but didnt they only buy it for the patents? and the rest they didn't want. So it was a success since they got the value and sold the waste, which is what they wanted.

Edited December 20, 2015 by blank

[DoctorD]

Google owned Motorola mobile for 5 years, hardly just a patent grab.

 

I guess my analogy is lost so here it is more simply put.... Google loses 9 Billion on a sale and no one bats an eye, Apple loses 30 Million and people lose their minds.

Edited December 20, 2015 by DoctorD

[paulheu]

9 hours ago, #Michael said:

Stop talking out of your arse:

 

Apple watch estimates: 21 million units http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/apple-watch-takeaways/

Mac sales for 2015: 21 million macs http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/apple-q4-2015-financial-results-how-many-iphones-ipads-watches-macs-sold-revenue-results-3581769/

Apple Pay: US/UK/Canada/Australia/China(2016) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Pay

 

 

21 million watches is an estimate by an analyst with vested interest in Apple doing better that it is. All Apple is saying that sales are 'exceeding expectations' which really means nothing. Meanwhile I have seen a handful people wearing the watch when in the US and none when I am in my home country.

21 million Macs is niche.. It's about 1-3% of overall destop/laptop sales

Apple Pay is in the very low single Digit figures as far as usage goes and even then with a large number of same people using it more frequent.

 

Besides the US and Japan iOS really has below 20% market worldwide. Apple and their affiliate press/analysts will give you only big numbers and not how these big number relate to the real world overall data. When they say their Mac sales increase by 14% they do not mention that even with that growth they're still outsold 7:1 or better against windows desktops/laptops. When they say the adoption rate for iOS is 80% where Android is 'only 15%'they forget to mention that those 15% Android device in total outnumber the 80% iOS devices..

 

It's all a matter of perspective and how you spin the numbers. It took Apple a long time to find a way to spin Apple Watch number to make them appear as if they are fantastic, they are not. And when hey make the Watch obsolete by introducing Watch 2 they will be hurt even more. 

 

Also those asking for sources, I considered that, but unless you are unable to use Google search it's 10 seconds to find a plethora of viable sources you would normally have no problem quoting if they benefit your Apple craving..

 

Then, me being a Microsoft Fanboy.. Honestly, I could not care less and I say that being a Windows user (including mobile). If Microsoft fails, there will be alternatives, but I'm fine where I am and Microsoft won't fail, at least not before Apple is long gone. They have such a diverse business model they could theoretically loose any one of their ventures and be fine. Not so with Apple as they really are betting everything on one product.

 

Lastly, losing $160B is not a dip. I hear people predict the doom of other companies if they lose 5-6% in a day.. Apple is down near 5% for the year and with an increasing amount of otherwise/previously fairly Apple friendly major publications now carrying this story, yes I do feel this may be the beginning of the downturn for Apple which I do not believe they will be able to recover from.

[+Anarkii Subscriber²]

For those of you who like pretty pictures. Heres what OP is saying - freefall. 

[The Evil Overlord]

Eurocom

[Michael Scrip]

49 minutes ago, Anarkii said:

For those of you who like pretty pictures. Heres what OP is saying - freefall. 

 

The 5 year picture for Apple looks much better:

 

 

But HTC is doing much worse:

 

[NeoWind]

Apple can survive without innovating anything since they have enough fund. They can stop selling iPhone and the company will still exist in 2030. The product design produce by Apple isn't that good anymore so it's no wonder the stock might be dipping.

[TrickyDickie]

1 hour ago, paulheu said:

21 million watches is an estimate by an analyst...

These Apple-heads will still deny the facts even when the company has fallen lol

And the sooner the better, I say.

[ctebah]

1 hour ago, paulheu said:

 

21 million Macs is niche.. It's about 1-3% of overall destop/laptop sales

 

This, right there, is the reason you loose all credibility instantly.  Apple owns a very small part of the desktop/laptop market but they take in the vast majority of the profits.  They do the same with iPhones, iPads and probably the iWatch.  You also discredit Apple Pay which has only been available in a handful of countries and expanding.  Same thing goes with Apple Music.  

 

You see, to us, normal people, it doesn't matter whether Apple looses 160 billion or makes 160 billion, our phones still work the same, no matter the manufacturer.  You have been forecasting the doom of Apple since the first iPhone came out, and almost a decade later, they are the biggest company in the world.  

[Anibal P]

20 minutes ago, ctebah said:

This, right there, is the reason you loose all credibility instantly.  Apple owns a very small part of the desktop/laptop market but they take in the vast majority of the profits.  They do the same with iPhones, iPads and probably the iWatch.  You also discredit Apple Pay which has only been available in a handful of countries and expanding.  Same thing goes with Apple Music.  

 

You see, to us, normal people, it doesn't matter whether Apple looses 160 billion or makes 160 billion, our phones still work the same, no matter the manufacturer.  You have been forecasting the doom of Apple since the first iPhone came out, and almost a decade later, they are the biggest company in the world.  

 

Selling overpriced hardware is starting to not be profitable, it never is in the long term, acting like it's not an issue is wrong, personal opinions about a company aside, Apple has not been at the forefront for quite a while, yes they make sure that as many celebrities and athletes show off their apple logos, but even that's starting to fade and you are seeing more and more people in the public eye using other brands, for consumers that's good, Apple is a niche boutique thing now, but for Apple as a company there has to be people stressing and worrying, being known as a fashion brand, where they are now mainly, can't keep the cash rolling in, for everyone's sake they need to actually produce a good product that is not image based 

[ctebah]

11 minutes ago, Anibal P said:

 

Selling overpriced hardware is starting to not be profitable, it never is in the long term, acting like it's not an issue is wrong, personal opinions about a company aside, Apple has not been at the forefront for quite a while, yes they make sure that as many celebrities and athletes show off their apple logos, but even that's starting to fade and you are seeing more and more people in the public eye using other brands, for consumers that's good, Apple is a niche boutique thing now, but for Apple as a company there has to be people stressing and worrying, being known as a fashion brand, where they are now mainly, can't keep the cash rolling in, for everyone's sake they need to actually produce a good product that is not image based 

Everything you stated is common business practice that EVERY SINGLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD does.  We can argue about the value of their product forever but what they do, they do good.  They sell their hardware at what the market will bear, and when the market cannot bear it any more, sales will go down.  

 

Fanboys will be fanboys, but people must have very sad lives when they "hope" a company goes under...

[Studio384]

12 hours ago, Michael Scrip said:

 

When iPhone sales decline... they will go from 230 million units a year down to 200 million a year.  And Apple will still make billions.

 

Other companies barely sell 20 million smartphones a year... and they lose money doing it!

 

You sound like an "Apple is Doomed" person... but there are 1,000 companies who you should worry about before Apple. 

 

.

Calm down right there, in calendar year 2014, Apple sold 169 million smartphones. That's their highest so far, and while the year 2015 seems to be ready to beat that number (for something around 200 million), never - ever - before did the number of iPhone sales drop so fast on a quarter to quarter base throughout the year. Usually, it's a 20% drop in sales, in 2015, they had a 40% drop and expectations for Q4 aren't high either. It might be still a lot, and that might still generate plenty of revenue, but it won't please shareholders. And if that happens, a lot of money can go up in thin air quiet fast. And that on top of an 160B$ drop already. Well, that's not very good for your shareholders.

 

There is still some good news though, Apple doesn't just relay on iPhones. They also relay on iPads... which aren't selling well. But on top of that, they have - of course - also iPods... which aren't selling well either. Apple Watch? Well, analysts are expecting lower results there too. Well... honestly, Apple as a whole is performing below expectations.

[Anibal P]

16 minutes ago, ctebah said:

Everything you stated is common business practice that EVERY SINGLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD does.  We can argue about the value of their product forever but what they do, they do good.  They sell their hardware at what the market will bear, and when the market cannot bear it any more, sales will go down.  

 

Fanboys will be fanboys, but people must have very sad lives when they "hope" a company goes under...

 

The point is that all the reliable data indicates the ARE going down, and not by amounts that can be written off as seasonal or something else 

How many other lifestyle brands do you know of sell hardware? Apple, Beats, now owned by Apple and maybe one or two others, Apple is not using the same playbook as other brands, and it may be hurting them so not be actually doing the same as their competition business and promotion wise 

[ctebah]

Just now, Anibal P said:

 

The point is that all the reliable data indicates the ARE going down, and not by amounts that can be written off as seasonal or something else 

How many other lifestyle brands do you know of sell hardware? Apple, Beats, now owned by Apple and maybe one or two others, Apple is not using the same playbook as other brands, and it may be hurting them so not be actually doing the same as their competition business and promotion wise 

There is no reliable data for any sort of prediction.  The investors are scared and the stock is suffering, but that's about it.  Now, if we see a couple of quarters of lower sales, then there may be some cause for worry.  Even so, their sales would have to drop MASSIVELY for them to loose a lot of profits.  Remember, market share isn't everything...

[Above The Gods]

Title is a bit misleading. Had I known you were talking about the stock, I personally wouldn't have clicked into it. Their stock has had significantly greater declines in the last 10 years. What's worse is you're correlation of the current stock price with Apple's future performance as a company by stating they will be " down and possibly out in five" years.

 

You need to separate fanatical wishful thinking with reality.

[Brian M. Veteran]

Doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary to me. Due to Apple's product release cycles, there's always going to be peaks and troughs bigger than other companies, as people gamble on new releases, etc. There is a clear annual trend in the stock prices.

 

Doesn't seem anywhere near as bad as 2013, and I'm sure we saw lots of these "Apple is doomed" posts around then too.

 

There's no way to predict Apple's future - they're an unpredictable company by nature. As for the comments about making overpriced gadgets being unprofitable, they just released an £80 stylus for a £700 tablet, and this stylus is currently backordered by 4-5 weeks. The BOM for an iPhone these days is probably in the $200 range, and they're selling them, in the millions, from $600-$900. Good business if you can get it.

[HawkMan]

26 minutes ago, Anibal P said:

 

The point is that all the reliable data indicates the ARE going down, and not by amounts that can be written off as seasonal or something else 

How many other lifestyle brands do you know of sell hardware? Apple, Beats, now owned by Apple and maybe one or two others, Apple is not using the same playbook as other brands, and it may be hurting them so not be actually doing the same as their competition business and promotion wise 

How can it not be written of as seasonal when it was at the same level last year, and 3 months ago and if you look at the 5 year stats, they're significantly up...

[HawkMan]

Let's face it, the stocks are going down because stock buyers don't like the new battery case. and as much as I'm not an Apple fan, I know as well as anyone that when Apple announces the next iphone or watch, this is going to bounce right back up. It's how stocks work. Stocks are a meaningless measure of company value. They have a single purpose to exist, to bring in startup and investment money to the company and ater that, as legalized gambling for traders. noting more nothing less. the stock value aren't intrinsically connected to what the company does, but what the investors and traders do. what they do are often connected to what the company does, but often in a personal manner. 

[adrynalyne]

6 hours ago, DoctorD said:

When they did they purchased this tiny little upstart company called Motorola for a meager 12 Billion and sold in last year for under 3 billion.  See where I said bled cash applies. 

They bought Motorola for the patents. Everyone knows this. 

 

http://gigaom.com/2014/01/30/google-paid-4b-for-patents-why-the-motorola-deal-worked-out-just-fine/

 

Even though Motorola made phones under Google, they did so as a separate entity. 

[Jack W]

@paulheu Thanks for the thread and tip! This story has now been covered, you can view it here: https://www.neowin.net/news/apples-stock-loses-over-160b-as-analysts-forecast-smartphone-decline

[HawkMan]

ah, analysts... apple releases a battery case that's universally ridiculed for it's bad design. we know every time Apple releases something that's not well received no matter how trivial the traders do a chain reaction of trading causing the stock to fall. the stock falls after this horrible battery case is released, so naturally the analysts cleverly analyze that the stocks are falling because no one wants smartphones anymore. it's not like Apple is selling more phones than ever or anything...

[Kierax2016]

I have Apple computers, I'm a Windows Gamer on a dedicated Windows Rig I built myself, their is no "better" their is simply what suits you as a person.

 

 

[Jack W]

Just now, Kierax2016 said:

I have Apple computers, I'm a Windows Gamer on a dedicated Windows Rig I built myself, their is no "better" their is simply what suits you as a person.

 

 

Precisely. I prefer Mac for development, it is easier to get things set-up. But I prefer Windows for business stuff, editing, general usage, etc - because it is friendlier, better quality programs and I love the design.

[notta]

I guess there are layoffs in Apple's near future.

[vcfan]

apple fans will not be eating apple pie this christmas, only humble pie