Andrew House surprised by timing of Project Scorpio announcement

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

26 minutes ago, Andrew said:

 

 

It definitely will be. Even when you factor in buying bulk or loss-leading, it will be very expensive. And you still have to add a 4K TV and whatever VR headset they support. If it were released today, you'd be looking at over £2k for the whole setup.

 

Which I suppose plays in nicely again for Sony. The PS4 will be much cheaper in 2017. PSVR will most likely see some form of price cut by then which puts the VR entry requirements in Sony's favour. I imagine the Neo could be close to £500, barring any major changes to specs.

 

IMO, if you're spending anywhere near 1k for the console, you would be a fool not to buy a gaming PC. Especially when MS is making everything cross-platform.

£500 will be DOA. It has to be £400 max, £425 at an absolute stretch.

 

Remember Neo is rumoured to be the same CPU/Memory, just clocked higher. It is the RX 480 giving it the bump in performance.

 

A 4K TV isn't a requirement for any of this, 1080/60FPS is what most people want. A higher resolution is more important for a VR headset than it is on a TV. On our TVs people are just getting bummed out by framerates that can't even be locked at 30, and resolutions a fair bit below 1080p.

[DrunknMunky Veteran]

Just now, Audioboxer said:

£500 will be DOA. It has to be £400 max.

 

Remember Neo is rumoured to be the same CPU/Memory, just clocked higher. It is the RX 480 giving it the bump in performance.

 

A 4K TV isn't a requirement for any of this, 1080/60FPS is what most people want. A higher resolution is more important for a VR headset than it is on a TV.

Well it's a requirement if you buy Scorpio and want to play 4K games

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

3 minutes ago, Andrew said:

Well it's a requirement if you buy Scorpio and want to play 4K games

MS PR is always a crap shoot

 

The real need for MS to put out a box at this sort of spec is if they partner with Occulus/Vive. Unlike PS VR which aims for 1080p native res, those two headsets aim higher ~ Another reason why the original Xbox One stands no chance at getting VR support.

 

The 4K tvs PR is just nonsense.

[dead.cell]

22 minutes ago, Audioboxer said:

£500 will be DOA. It has to be £400 max, £425 at an absolute stretch.

 

Remember Neo is rumoured to be the same CPU/Memory, just clocked higher. It is the RX 480 giving it the bump in performance.

 

A 4K TV isn't a requirement for any of this, 1080/60FPS is what most people want. A higher resolution is more important for a VR headset than it is on a TV. On our TVs people are just getting bummed out by framerates that can't even be locked at 30, and resolutions a fair bit below 1080p.

Well said.

 

I think my big issue is... if you're going to pay that much money for Scorpio, and games will be Xbox/Windows10 now... why the hell don't I just buy an Xbox controller for my PC and CALL IT A DAY?! Seriously, at least then I could maybe opt to buy a 4K monitor if I really cared about it that much. I could also opt to do VR right now instead of later.

 

I just don't see the incentive. I'm not saying Scorpio is a bad move, but you have to consider... 1.5yrs out? That's a good bit of waiting. Maybe they can get the price right though, and it will help transition a lot of gamers to PC. Who knows? All I know is that eventually, as we enter 2017, I wouldn't doubt we begin to see Xbox sales slump in preparation for Scorpio. Can Microsoft afford to lose more ground to Sony? and is the One S enough to suffice in the face of PS VR?

 

And that's all without even getting into game exclusives, which is always back and forth.  Either way, I suppose now is a good time to be a PC gamer. Maybe this will help the Windows Store expand too.

Edited June 17, 2016 by dead.cell

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

8 minutes ago, dead.cell said:

Well said.

 

I think my big issue is... if you're going to pay that much money for Scorpio, and games will be Xbox/Windows10 now... why the hell don't I just buy an Xbox controller for my PC and CALL IT A DAY?! Seriously, at least then I could maybe opt to buy a 4K monitor if I really cared about it that much. I could also opt to do VR right now instead of later.

 

I just don't see the incentive. I'm not saying Scorpio is a bad move, but you have to consider... 1.5yrs out? That's a good bit of waiting. Maybe they can get the price right though, and it will help transition a lot of gamers to PC. Who knows? All I know is that eventually, as we enter 2017, I wouldn't doubt we begin to see Xbox sales slump in preparation for Scorpio. Can Microsoft afford to lose more ground to Sony? and is the One S enough to suffice in the face of PS VR?

 

And that's all without even getting into game exclusives, which is always back and forth.

Quite honestly with the way things are you wouldn't be that shocked to have thought MS would be the ones releasing Neo this year, and Sony being the ones happy to try and stretch out PSVR on a PS4 until fall of next year. The original PS4 being faster than the XB1, let alone Sony coming out now and releasing a Neo in a matter of months while MS wants everyone to wait till the end of next year lol.

[dead.cell]

1 minute ago, Audioboxer said:

Quite honestly with the way things are you wouldn't be that shocked to have thought MS would be the ones releasing Neo this year, and Sony being the ones happy to try and stretch out PSVR on a PS4 until fall of next year. The original PS4 being faster than the XB1, let alone Sony coming out now and releasing a Neo in a matter of months while MS wants everyone to wait till the end of next year lol.

Do you really think Neo will be out that soon? I'm having doubts, but there's plenty to tide folks over until it releases really. I don't know that releasing outside the holiday window is smart.

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

2 minutes ago, dead.cell said:

Do you really think Neo will be out that soon? I'm having doubts, but there's plenty to tide folks over until it releases really. I don't know that releasing outside the holiday window is smart.

Sept-Nov is my bet. If they wait till 2017 then Scorpio starts to look more enticing. Only way Neo really works as a lower powered box is getting a decent head start. Otherwise they are better off just waiting till around when Scorpio is planned and release a more powerful Neo then.

[DrunknMunky Veteran]

Topic cleaned.

[Jim K Global Moderator]

3 hours ago, Audioboxer said:

Well I hope we get to see that, as I seriously doubt they will sell well at $500+. Especially the $599 you said above. I ask you to explain again why you think that sort of price is necessary? 6TFLOPs by late 2017 PC standards will be low~mid end. Why would MS need to charge $599? It's almost as if you are trying to price a 6TFLOP box now, as opposed to late 2017. The AMD RX 480 which is 5.5 TFLOP has a consumer price of $200, let alone whatever price Sony/MS could bag those chips for now with a mass order. So again, why does a 6TFLOP box late 2017 need to be $599?

 

Let's see what the Neo price is for this year as well. Are you expecting it to cost $500+? $499 is the absolute max I expect to see Neo at.

Here is my prediction (US currency).

Xbox was released for $300

Xbox 360 was released for $299 .... 4 years after the original. 

Xbox One standalone was released for $400 ... ~8 years after the 360 ... and 5 times more powerful (1.23 TFLOPS vs. 0.24 TFLOPS)

Xbox Scorpio will be released 4 years after the One and be about 5 times more powerful (~6 TFLOPS vs. 1.23 TFLOPS)

 

Prediction - 400-450 for the standalone base model not one with a $100 Kinect (or another expensive additional bundle)

 

Bookmark this page.

Edited June 17, 2016 by jjkusaf
Corrected Xbox One to reflect standalone price and my prediction to reflect standalone

[+Audioboxer Subscriber²]

5 minutes ago, jjkusaf said:

Here is my prediction (US currency).

Xbox was released for $300

Xbox 360 was released for $300 ... 4 years after the original. 

Xbox One was released for $400 ... 8 years after the 360 ... and 5 times more powerful (1.23 TFLOPS vs. 0.24 TFLOPS)

Xbox Scorpio will be released 4 years after the One and be about 5 times more powerful (~6 TFLOPS vs. 1.23 TFLOPS)

 

Prediction - 400-450

 

Bookmark this page.

I think that would be fair.

[Jim K Global Moderator]

13 minutes ago, Audioboxer said:

I think that would be fair.

yea...it is just my guess.  It could be priced higher...we won't know until next year.  The thing is though ... Microsoft doesn't make any money on the consoles themselves ... they actually lose money and recoup it later (game sales, Xbox Live, etc.)  They can't price the console so high that mom and dad will not buy it for their kiddos or out of reach of some broke college kid.  So, pricing it at a "low" price to get people into the "system" reaps profits down the road.  Anyway, I do not think you can really look at the 6 TFLOPS, 4K gaming, etc., and put a very high price tag on it (like $600).  You have to (IMO) keep it around the same price point as prior Xboxs ... with a little inflation added on top.

[dead.cell]

49 minutes ago, jjkusaf said:

Here is my prediction (US currency).

Xbox was released for $300

Xbox 360 was released for $300 ... 4 years after the original. 

Xbox One was released for $400 ... 8 years after the 360 ... and 5 times more powerful (1.23 TFLOPS vs. 0.24 TFLOPS)

Xbox Scorpio will be released 4 years after the One and be about 5 times more powerful (~6 TFLOPS vs. 1.23 TFLOPS)

 

Prediction - 400-450

 

Bookmark this page.

Slight error, Xbox One was released at $499*, ($500).

[Jim K Global Moderator]

5 minutes ago, dead.cell said:

Slight error, Xbox One was released at $499*, ($500).

That was with Kinect.  Standalone was $399.

 

 

 

[Skiver Veteran]

8 minutes ago, jjkusaf said:

That was with Kinect.  Standalone was $399.

 

 

 

That was a completely different release though - call me super pedantic here but your text says "released at" which it wasn't released without Kinect, that came some months later.

 

In that sense we could go find the price of the 360 core which I believe was cheaper and quote that price. 

 

 

[Showan]

17 hours ago, vcfan said:

"I was surprised by the step of announcing something over a year ahead of time,"

 

just like all those games you showed at e3

 

shots fired...???

[Jim K Global Moderator]

13 minutes ago, Skiver said:

That was a completely different release though - call me super pedantic here but your text says "released at" which it wasn't released without Kinect, that came some months later.

 

In that sense we could go find the price of the 360 core which I believe was cheaper and quote that price. 

Fine, corrected the post to reflect the standalone price.  Didn't think I would have to justify their addition of a ~$100 device into the bundle ... but ok.

 

The Xbox 360 "core" was $300, sorry...$299.  I updated my OP to reflect that correction.

[Sszecret Veteran]

500 or even 550 WITH some sort of VR thingy bundled (I doubt it'll be Hololens, since that's AR). 400 with just the controller bundled. 

[Skiver Veteran]

16 minutes ago, jjkusaf said:

Fine, corrected the post to reflect the standalone price.  Didn't think I would have to justify their addition of a ~$100 device into the bundle ... but ok.

 

The Xbox 360 "core" was $300, sorry...$299.  I updated my OP to reflect that correction.

If I was you, I'd have just called me pedantic and got on with it

 

I do agree with your prediction though, I originally was thinking this was going to be some stupidly expensive price but after seeing people are saying that type of performance can be found today then in a years time the costs will come down a bit.

[Showan]

I think Microsoft and Sony are going to price their respective "refresh boxes" at an expensive price point as well.

 

The reason being is because the base model One and PS4 will still be on store shelves and selling.

 

Microsoft and Sony will market these as "Premium Experiences" (ala Xbox One Elite Controller) along side the base model consoles.

 

When you walk into a store and now able to have an inexpensive base console(s) $279 - $299 and now these new boxes next to them at $500+, it will put the ball in the consumers hands.

 

 

[Showan]

Also it appears that Phil "doesnt care" if your on Xbox or not any longer.  As long as you are in the Xbox ecosystem in some capacity.

Wondering if Microsoft will be going back to the "Loss on Hardware" approach again.

 

Giant Bomb's interview w/Phil Spencer starts at the 22min mark or so.

 

 

[HawkMan]

3 hours ago, dead.cell said:

Well said.

 

I think my big issue is... if you're going to pay that much money for Scorpio, and games will be Xbox/Windows10 now... why the hell don't I just buy an Xbox controller for my PC and CALL IT A DAY?! Seriously, at least then I could maybe opt to buy a 4K monitor if I really cared about it that much. I could also opt to do VR right now instead of later.

 

I just don't see the incentive. I'm not saying Scorpio is a bad move, but you have to consider... 1.5yrs out? That's a good bit of waiting. Maybe they can get the price right though, and it will help transition a lot of gamers to PC. Who knows? All I know is that eventually, as we enter 2017, I wouldn't doubt we begin to see Xbox sales slump in preparation for Scorpio. Can Microsoft afford to lose more ground to Sony? and is the One S enough to suffice in the face of PS VR?

 

And that's all without even getting into game exclusives, which is always back and forth.  Either way, I suppose now is a good time to be a PC gamer. Maybe this will help the Windows Store expand too.

What makes you think that only Xbox sales would drop in preparation for the scorpio and no also PS sales...

 

And people don't buy computers because they want a console. not because they can't get a computer with similar specs for a similar price. 

[DrunknMunky Veteran]

3 hours ago, Showan said:

Also it appears that Phil "doesnt care" if your on Xbox or not any longer.  As long as you are in the Xbox ecosystem in some capacity.

Wondering if Microsoft will be going back to the "Loss on Hardware" approach again.

I'm pretty sure they've been losing money on X1 since it launched. Kinect took $100 with it and there's been constant price cuts ever since, either official or temporary from MS, and heavily discounted in the UK by retailers.

[+Asmodai MVC]

11 hours ago, HawkMan said:

I don't see peopel holding off on buying a one or one s because of this. this is the choice between a high end or a normal device. like buying a cheap or expensive gaming rig.

I doubt they'll even keep making the launch One.  They'll sell off what inventory they have and the S will become the new norm.  If gamers wanted an Xbox One though they'll likely have one already, I don't think the S is going to cause a bunch of new people to come on board but it will be the basic option for people going forward once the launch Ones sell out.

 

Quote

it's not marketed at the same people. most of the targets for the scorpio already has a one or a PS4 or both.

I don't know if I'm representative of the target market or not (probably not?) but I've got a launch PS4 and never owned any Xbox (Xbox, Xbox 360, or One) and I'm interested in Project Scorpio.

Furthermore I've had every PlayStation (1, 2, 3, 4, even PSP and Vita) but the Project Scorpio announcement has killed any desire on my part to get Neo or PSVR unless some other info I'm not currently aware of comes out in the coming year to change my mind.

 

Quote

It's going to be expensive, very expensive.

I seriously doubt it will be more than $499. Though I wouldn't be surprised if MS sold it for a loss like consoles were done on the past to try to rebuild the Xbox brand in the face of the PS4's crushing sales advantage. (not that I think it will catch the lead Sony's built up)

 

Quote

The power differential is basically an entire generation anyway.

Agreed but there are important factors here to consider.  First the Xbox One and PS4 were underpowered compared to PCs at the time of their initial launch compared to prior console generations.  As mentioned above they were sold at a profit from day one unlike prior generations.  Additionally the SoC fabs got stuck on the 28nm process for an unusually large amount of time and that log jam JUST broke with the jump to 14nm.  All these factors contribute to a next-gen jump happening faster and cheaper than in the past.

 

Quote

For all intents and purpsose this IS the next generation xbox as this is the last, and first, generation xbox in a way. IT's th e last of the genearionts, but the first of a generation free xbox console. What will be ineterestign to see is what time limits they set on backwards support for new games after the scroption launches. At some point they have to do what they do with phones and such and say "games need to support hardware generations minimum 8 years old". 

I'm curious as to how this is going to work myself.  Despite MS's marketing I would say the next generation of Xbox will begin when Microsoft allows developers to make games that won't run on the launch Xbox One.  As long as you can buy a new AAA Xbox disc in the store and put it in your launch Xbox One and have it run the game it's the same generation even if your neighbor can put that same disc in their newer Xbox and run the game at higher resolution/framerate, with more vegetation, etc.  That's a horrible thought to me though that MS is going to cause the launch Xbox One to "hold back" what the newer hardware can do in order to "leave no one behind" and call it the same generation.  I'd rather they do a clean break and let devs push the new hardware to it's limits, even if the new hardware is backwards compatible and can run the older games as well.

[HawkMan]

11 minutes ago, Asmodai said:

I doubt they'll even keep making the launch One.  They'll sell off what inventory they have and the S will become the new norm.  If gamers wanted an Xbox One though they'll likely have one already, I don't think the S is going to cause a bunch of new people to come on board but it will be the basic option for people going forward once the launch Ones sell out.

 

 

in this context the S is still the "launch" One. or the"base"/Gen1 model, even though it has theoretical slightly more performance. 

[HawkMan]

13 minutes ago, Asmodai said:

 

I'm curious as to how this is going to work myself.  Despite MS's marketing I would say the next generation of Xbox will begin when Microsoft allows developers to make games that won't run on the launch Xbox One.  As long as you can buy a new AAA Xbox disc in the store and put it in your launch Xbox One and have it run the game it's the same generation even if your neighbor can put that same disc in their newer Xbox and run the game at higher resolution/framerate, with more vegetation, etc.  That's a horrible thought to me though that MS is going to cause the launch Xbox One to "hold back" what the newer hardware can do in order to "leave no one behind" and call it the same generation.  I'd rather they do a clean break and let devs push the new hardware to it's limits, even if the new hardware is backwards compatible and can run the older games as well.

 

It will of course have to happen. but not for a long time yet. all the assets for a lower quality game is already in a high quality game in the form of LOD assets. lower poly distance models and textures. 

 

the issue won't really come up until game engines start getting past what the base model can keep up with and even that can be parallelized for a long time. so it won't be for at least 5 years I'd say, and we're probably going to see a gradual shift where a few games start to only support the "top" model for gameplay and balance reasons.  of course in 5 years, the next Scorpio will be out  and the Scorpio will be the new Scorpio S base model.