Europe's space launch problem

[DocM]

Situation:

Vega C (3.5 ton payload) is eating its first stage nozzle and has a problem with low chamber pressure. Things are not going well, with another test failure last week. Vega C was planned to be an enhancement of the original Vega (1.5 ton). ESA has announced the original Vega may be coming back for small payloads until Vega C is fixed.

Heavy class Ariane 5 retired 2 days ago after 117 launches, and its replacement Ariane 6 is stuck in development hell - not expected to fly until late 2024. Maybe.

So, Europe will be using SpaceX's Falcon 9 for anything larger than a Vega payload until Ariane 6 flies. 

Using Russian launchers is out of the question for obvious reasons.

Japan's new H3 suffered its own launch failure several weeks ago.

 

[Astra.Xtreme]

Why didn't they give Ariane 5 another year or two of life until 6 is truly ready?  Being single-sourced with SpaceX seems like a risk that isn't ideal in the space industry.

[DocM]

On 07/07/2023 at 13:04, Astra.Xtreme said:

Why didn't they give Ariane 5 another year or two of life until 6 is truly ready?  Being single-sourced with SpaceX seems like a risk that isn't ideal in the space industry.

 

ESA is also going through a bit of a funding crisis, with Germany cutting way back on their space program. 

Their problem started back in the 2014-2016 time frame when Europe badly misjudged Falcon 9 and its potential impact on commercial launch.

For most commercial launches Ariane 5 was too expensive to fly with only one satellite, it needed 2, so they had to wait between launches to fill both slots. With a low flight rate the cash flow was not terrific.

Once F9  started landing and being reused they finally had an "Oh, S***!!" moment and started scrambling.  

Too late, the SpaceX Steamroller was in high gear.

So, now they are trying to develop the expendable Ariane 6 for the short term, while simultaneously developing Prometheus engines for the Themis reusable launcher.

Compounding the problem is the troublesome Vega C core booster will also be used as a side booster for Ariane 6. Can't fly either until that damn thing is fixed.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by DocM

[IsItPluggedIn]

On 08/07/2023 at 03:04, Astra.Xtreme said:

Why didn't they give Ariane 5 another year or two of life until 6 is truly ready?  Being single-sourced with SpaceX seems like a risk that isn't ideal in the space industry.

They cannibalised their Ariane 5 production facilities to start building Ariane 6. They initialed planned for a few year overlap with the stock on hand, but with the production delays, those few years quickly disappeared with no end in sight. They also expected to still have the Vega C and Soyuz still flying. It was not a terrible decision at the time, but with how things have played out, it was not a good one.

Now their launch options are, SpaceX or ISRO. The remaining options are either not Politically Viable (Russia,China), grounded (Japan, Anteras, Zenit) all booked out (ULA), not ready yet (BO, Relativity, Firefly, RL).