Atlas V: Boeing Starliner CFT (crewed flight test)

[DocM]

Breaking Starliner news,

Crew 9 is delayed a month because of problems with the Starliner software.

NASA needs to put an end to this sh*tshow. 

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-likely-to-significantly-delay-the-launch-of-crew-9-due-to-starliner-issues/

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NASA likely to significantly delay the launch of Crew 9 due to Starliner issues

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"The Crew 9 delay is relevant to the Starliner dilemma for a couple of reasons. One, it gives NASA more time to determine the flightworthiness of Starliner. However, there is also another surprising reason for the delay—the need to update Starliner’s flight software. Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

>

Hopefully the replacement software load will resolve the issue, otherwise Starliner will be blocking one of the two ports visiting vehicles can dock at until they can figure this mess out.

[DocM]

The decision of how Starliner's crew comes home will be made NASA Administrator Bill Nelson.

They are announcing this afternoon that SpaceX's Crew 9 mission is delayed because of Starliner; it can't automatically leave the ISS docking port because for some reason Boeing did not load that software. The delay will give them time so they can update the software so Crew 9's Dragon has a place to park.

I get the feeling Boeing is not going to like this.

 

 

[DocM]

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2024/08/06/nasa-adjusts-crew-9-launch-date-for-operational-flexibility/

"NASA and SpaceX are targeting no earlier than Tuesday, Sept. 24, for the launch of the agency’s Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station.

This adjustment allows more time for mission managers to finalize return planning for the agency’s Boeing Crew Flight Test currently docked to the orbiting laboratory. Starliner ground teams are taking their time to analyze the results of recent docked hot-fire testing, finalize flight rationale for the spacecraft’s integrated propulsion system, and confirm system reliability ahead of Starliner’s return to Earth. NASA and Boeing continue to evaluate the spacecraft’s readiness, and no decisions have been made regarding Starliner’s return.

The Crew-9 launch adjustment also deconflicts the next SpaceX rotation with the upcoming Soyuz handover targeted for no earlier than mid-September. Teams are working to prepare the Crew-9 mission to be ready to launch from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida to deconflict with pad preparations for NASA’s Europa Clipper mission beginning this September at nearby Launch Complex 39A at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center. NASA also will adjust the launch of SpaceX’s 31st commercial resupply services mission to no earlier than mid-October.

The agency will host a media teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, Aug. 7, with agency leadership to discuss ongoing operations, including NASA’s Crew-9, Crew-8, and Crew Flight Test missions."

[DocM]

NASA Starliner  teleconference Wednesday, and it looks like Boeing's Mark Nappi will not be taking part in the call. 

Teleconference link: https://www.youtube.com/live/DYPL6bx87yM

 

https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-to-provide-crew-flight-test-space-station-missions-update/

NASA will host a media teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, Aug. 7, to discuss ongoing International Space Station operations, including the agency’s Boeing Crew Flight Test and NASA’s SpaceX Crew-9 mission. 

Audio of the briefing will stream live on NASA’s website.

Agency participants include:

 • Ken Bowersox, associate administrator, Space Operations Mission Directorate
 • Steve Stich, manager, Commercial Crew Program
 • Dana Weigel, manager, International Space Station Program

[DocM]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-spacex.html

 

"NASA Says Boeing Starliner Astronauts May Fly Home on SpaceX in 2025

For weeks, NASA has downplayed problems experienced by Starliner, a Boeing spacecraft that took two astronauts to the International Space Station in June.

But on Wednesday, NASA officials admitted that the issues might be more serious than first thought and that the astronauts might not return on the Boeing vehicle, after all.

>

Under the contingency plan, the next SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule would travel to the space station with only two astronauts instead of four. Ms. Williams and Mr. Wilmore would then join as full-fledged members of the space station crew for a half-year stay and return on the Crew Dragon around next February.

“In the last few weeks, we have decided to make sure we have that capability there, as our community, I would say, got more and more uncomfortable,” said Steve Stich, the manager of the commercial crew program at NASA.

>"

[bguy_1986]

On 07/08/2024 at 18:07, DocM said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-spacex.html

 

"NASA Says Boeing Starliner Astronauts May Fly Home on SpaceX in 2025

For weeks, NASA has downplayed problems experienced by Starliner, a Boeing spacecraft that took two astronauts to the International Space Station in June.

But on Wednesday, NASA officials admitted that the issues might be more serious than first thought and that the astronauts might not return on the Boeing vehicle, after all.

>

Under the contingency plan, the next SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule would travel to the space station with only two astronauts instead of four. Ms. Williams and Mr. Wilmore would then join as full-fledged members of the space station crew for a half-year stay and return on the Crew Dragon around next February.

“In the last few weeks, we have decided to make sure we have that capability there, as our community, I would say, got more and more uncomfortable,” said Steve Stich, the manager of the commercial crew program at NASA.

>"

2025?  That's crazy.  When were they supposed to be home?  It was only supposed to be a few week right?

[+thexfile Subscriber²]

SS Starliner

[DocM]

On 12/08/2024 at 17:02, bguy_1986 said:

2025?  That's crazy.  When were they supposed to be home?  It was only supposed to be a few week right?

 

Dragon Crew 8 returns to Earth sooner, but it has a crew complement of 4. The only way to put Butch and Suni on that trip is to mount foam and seat inserts on the cargo deck. It can handle 3 down there, but it would be a rough ride. NASA feels this is only viable after Starliner leaves without its crew as an emergency bug-out vehicle.

The option NASA prefers is to send them down on Crew 9 which launches in late  September. They would remove 2 of the 4 crew members from that mission, leaving empty seats. Butch and Suni would take over there duties, which is easily done because they are extremely experienced astronauts. Crew 9 is scheduled to come down in February 2025.

++++++++++ 

New statement from NASA 

Full text: (Ken Bowersox is a former astronaut, and former lead of the crew  space program at SpaceX)

Update: Teams working on the return plan for @NASA’s Boeing Crew Flight Test are making progress analyzing testing data as we evaluate the Starliner return options. We now are planning for decisional meetings no earlier than next week to give the time we need to make the best decision possible for the safety of our crew, which is our top priority. The agency will host a media update on Wednesday, Aug. 14, to provide the latest status on the ongoing work. More to come on timing.

-Ken Bowersox, Associate Administrator for Space Ops

Edited August 12 by DocM

[DocM]

Progress report from NASA.

No one from Boeing will be there, again.

This is mostly about Boeing insisting they can fly Butch and Suni home safely, and a significant number of NASA people being not so sure.

No one at NASA side wants another Columbia type  situation. 

Audio will also be available from NASA TV on YouTube 

 

++++++++++

NASA will host a media teleconference at 1 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, Aug. 14, to provide an update on the agency’s Boeing Crew Flight Test. Mission managers continue to evaluate the Starliner spacecraft’s readiness in advance of decisional meetings no earlier than next week regarding the return of NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams.

Audio of the teleconference will stream live on the agency’s website at:

https://www.nasa.gov/nasatv

 

Participants include:

• Ken Bowersox, Associate Administrator, NASA’s Space Operations Mission Directorate

(he was on ISS when Columbia was destroyed)

• Joel Montalbano, Deputy Associate Administrator, NASA’s Space Operations Mission Directorate

• Russ DeLoach, Chief, NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance

• NASA Chief Astronaut Joe Acaba

• Emily Nelson, Chief Flight Director, NASA’s Flight Operations Directorate

To ask questions during the teleconference, media must RSVP no later than two hours prior to the start of the call to Jimi Russell at: james.j.russell@nasa.gov. NASA’s media accreditation policy is available online.
>

[DocM]

At today's teleconference NASA pushed right a decision until the week of the 26th.

Ars Technica space edirorvEric Berger's X thread

More text;

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NASA's chief astronaut, Joe Acaba, says Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams launched to the ISS prepared for all contingencies. Says a potential eight-month increment on the station is well within the safety range for long-duration stays.

[Dan~]

If SpaceX does not rename Crew Dragon to Thunderbird 3 for that mission I’ll be disappointed

[DocM]

On 14/08/2024 at 18:07, Dan~ said:

If SpaceX does not rename Crew Dragon to Thunderbird 3 for that mission I’ll be disappointed

 

I don't think they'd rename the vehicle, but it would be fun if they called the mission Tbird III or put a Thunderbird 3 decal on the vehicle. Twist the knife a little bit.

Maybe Musk will make a Thunderbird 3 meme  that'll go viral.

[DocM]

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, a former Senator who flew on the Shuttle

• https://twitter.com/senbillnelson/status/1823788200277463288

Full text,

"Following today's press briefing, I want to extend my gratitude to our teams working on NASA's Boeing Crew Flight Test. Butch and Suni are doing well on the International Space Station, where they continue to complete important tasks alongside the Expedition 71 crew. Safety is our core value, and NASA is evaluating every option to ensure Butch and Suni's safe return."

[DocM]

Dragon & Starliner fleet review as of August 1, 2024

Another Crew Dragon (C213) under construction.

 

[DocM]

The title is all that's needed from this Ars Technica story

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-acknowledges-it-cannot-quantify-risk-of-starliner-propulsion-issues/

"NASA acknowledges it cannot quantify risk of Starliner propulsion issues

"We don’t have enough insight and data to make some sort of simple black-and-white calculation."

>"

[DocM]

Starliner undocking dates, with and without crew - that decision to be made later. 

 

 

[DocM]

Starliner decision day is tomorrow, Saturday, and Ars Technica's Eric Berger is hearing things, Abhi Tripathi of Space Sciences Laboratory expands...

 

 

 

Full text of Abhi Tripathi

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This was always the practical/conservative approach once there was internal dissent without (we can only assume) good data to overcome the dissent.

Here is a pragmatic way NASA could explain this:

-Inform the public that the safety culture installed based on lessons learned from Columbia resulted in misgivings from some of the stakeholders, and that data could not be collected to overcome those misgivings. The risk band was too wide.

-Given that that there is another viable option, NASA felt it was prudent to use that option

-Frame this (without explicitly saying so) that this is now giving Boeing a chance to prove to everyone that bringing Butch and Suni down on Dragon was overly cautious.  If Boeing executes a pretty flawless mission home (uncrewed), give them their applause and call this a "win-win" resolution/ending.

-If Starliner comes home safe, find a way through task orders or equitable adjustment enhancements to give Boeing more money for a cargo delivery mission (next) and to keep them incentivized to continue the Starliner program and human certification

-If, on the other hand, Starliner has lots of issues coming home, then it will be apparent to all that NASA's safety process worked.

-NASA's ultimate goal must remain the ability to field crewed vehicles from two different U.S. companies.

>

That sounds reasonable and likely is to be the playbook. It's my hope that NASA can find a way to work with Boeing to keep the program moving forward.

Edited August 23 by DocM

[DocM]

Link to tomorrow's Starliner news conference at 1300 Eastern. 

Eric Berger at Ars Technica reports his sources say they'll come down in Crew Dragon, Starliner will be sent down empty. We'll see.

https://www.youtube.com/live/AGOswKRSsHc

 

 

 

 

[+Biscuits Brown MVC]

It's official (and as we all suspected), Starliner will attempt to return autonomously with Butch and Suni returning in Crew 9 in February. 

[Dan~]

So Thunderbird 3 is a must now FAB

[Xenon]

I don't get all the crapping on the starliner. It was a test flight. Things are supposed to go wrong. Of course not as bad as they have, but now they know what to fix. How many times did it take spacex to perfect the falcon 9?

[SteveL]

On 24/08/2024 at 20:59, Xenon said:

I don't get all the crapping on the starliner. It was a test flight. Things are supposed to go wrong. Of course not as bad as they have, but now they know what to fix. How many times did it take spacex to perfect the falcon 9?

Not my intention to defend SpaceX but seriously? After 4 BILLION $ you have a problem on the propulsion system? 

[+Biscuits Brown MVC]

On 24/08/2024 at 13:59, Xenon said:

I don't get all the crapping on the starliner. It was a test flight. Things are supposed to go wrong. Of course not as bad as they have, but now they know what to fix. How many times did it take spacex to perfect the falcon 9?

Remind me how many time SpaceX stranded astronauts as the result of a test flight...

Look, the problem isn't that it was a test flight, its because they knew there were issues with the thrusters before they launched but did so anyway. Perhaps they should simply have done another uncrewed test flight (like SpaceX did) to get those issues worked out. 

[DocM]

On 24/08/2024 at 14:59, Xenon said:

I don't get all the crapping on the starliner. It was a test flight. Things are supposed to go wrong. Of course not as bad as they have, but now they know what to fix. How many times did it take spacex to perfect the falcon 9?

 

One F9 flight, the first was successful and F9 Block 1 flew 5 missions.

During one of these F9 B1 flights an engine failed, but because there were 8 more engines the avionics package commanded the rest of the engines to burn longer. Dragon not only got to the ISS, it got there early.

Engine-out capability is a major F9 advantage. 

 

++++++

The Starliner service module doghouses were a bad design from the get-go;

Before any flight tests were done there was a 2019 incident during a test fire of a doghouse. The valves did not close after the shutdown and 4000 lbs of hydrazine spilled all over the test stand and caught fire. Lost a bunch of ground support equipment.

Let's take a look at the doghouses in flight,

They are an enclosed space in vacuum (AKA thermos bottle) with 13 thrusters, control lines, propellant lines, valves, etc in close proximity to the frequently red hot thruster throats. This  concentrates  heat on the propellant lines & control valves. 

Vapor lock, combned with overheating valve seals protruding into the propellant lines. This failure mode was not discovered until Starliner had already flown to ISS and NASA did tests at White Sands.

This is not good, and the design problems 9 would have been discovered 10 years earlier if they had done a proper thermal analysis. They didn't.

This is all made worse by the operations of Starliner; at one point during approach to the ISS it turns its tail towards the Sun to use solar panels (at the bottom of the service module) to charge its batteries. Problem: this position also causes the Sun to heat the doghouses even further. NASA estimates about 50°F hotter. Wonderful!

It seems to me the only way to fix this is to increase the number of thruster housings to spread out the heat loads. This will not be cheap or fast.

What happens from here I think depends on if Starliner survives reentry.

If it returns intact Boeing needs to do a cost analysis to see if they can make money continuing the program. If not, either NASA needs to give them a lifeline or Boeing will cancel the Starliner project. They've already lost $1.6 billion on a $4.2 billion fixed price contract.

If Starliner comes down in smoldering pieces, the issue is academic. Starliner ends.

Of course this leaves NASA in a lurch, they need a second crew vehicle for redundancy. The only option right now is Sierra Space's Dream Chaser. DC 100 (cargo) is at KSC preparing for its first flight. DC 201 is a crew variant, which may start testing at the end of 2025 or start of 2026. 

This won't be in time to handle many of Starliner's 6 planned missions, but it would give NASA a second vehicle for after the ISS is decommissioned in 2030.  Then the CLD Program's  commercial stations take over.

Edited August 24 by DocM

[Jim K Global Moderator]

What a waste of money.  This thing was supposed to be operational in 2015 ... 9 years overdue and it has "stranded" its first crewed flight.  I think Boeing promised six flights to the ISS ... darn thing is going to be de-orbited before that happens at this current pace.  We'll see what happens when Starliner comes down in one piece or several ....if Boeing pulls the plug or not.