How long until 64-bit software becomes mainstream?

[kylejn]

I'm planning on building a computer in the next couple years based around a 64-bit processor. I'm curious as to how long it'll be, in y'all's opinions, before 64-bit software becomes really widespread and really starts taking advantage of the more advanced processor. Any thoughts?

[bucko]

When XP 64 comes out

most likely mainstream when Longhorn comes out

[Hurmoth]

I would have to agree with bucko. Right now there aren't a lot of computer manufactures pushing 64-bit (Dell, HP, etc.). When these manufactures adopt AMD64, or Intel EM64T, then 64-bit will become mainstream. This will most likely happen when Longhorn x64 is released ;)

[bontakun]

64-bit is mainstream in the mac and server market, just waiting on windows-based systems to catch up on (again)

[noyb]

You are aware that 64bit processing only actually benefits very few types of apps, hell even the most demanding games like Doom3 and HL2 would actually suffer worse performance and a larger footprint if they were coded to be 64bit, if your talking about doing high level dbase work or truely complex 3D rendering i could understand why you would need it but don't go searching the web for a release date of a 64bit version of Solitaire its just not going to happen.

Oh and the first person to tell these guys why most apps are better as 32bit gets a Mars bar.

[spaceelf]

You are aware that 64bit processing only actually benefits very few types of apps, hell even the most demanding games like Doom3 and HL2 would actually suffer worse performance and a larger footprint if they were coded to be 64bit, if your talking about doing high level dbase work or truely complex 3D rendering i could understand why you would need it but don't go searching the web for a release date of a 64bit version of Solitaire its just not going to happen.

Oh and the first person to tell these guys why most apps are better as 32bit gets a Mars bar.

585312156[/snapback]

Several games are already getting (or have) ports. (UT2004, Riddick, Shadow Ops, Far Cry, and I more than suspect Valve will get on there too.)

As for solitaire, no, but I don't think they main mainstream in that direction...more mainstream for high end users (such as gamers.)

I really don't think you should be comparing 64 bit to 32 bit so much as X86 vs X86-64. X86-64 includes more features than just the ability to use 64 bit processing.

[Vykranth]

My guess is that 64-bits computing will become mainstream when John Carmack wakes up and thinks: "I have an idea: Let's make a game which makes everything released before like a $5.00 shareware coded in Flash and I'll call it .... Doom V" :)

[spaceelf]

My guess is that 64-bits computing will become mainstream when John Carmack wakes up and thinks: "I have an idea: Let's make a game which makes everything released before like a $5.00 shareware coded in Flash and I'll call it .... Doom V"  :)

585314120[/snapback]

Yeah whatever, I haven't even played doom 3 (and don't plan to, unless it gets really cheap)

I hated quake 1-3 so I'm not in any mood to spend money on an ID product.

My guess is the 2007-2009 timeframe since Longhorn will be 64 bit (and that version, if seperate versions are needed, will probably be sold in stores, unlike XP64)

[Burned]

Probably as soon as Intel goes mainstream with 64 Bit processors.

Wasn't XP 64 supposed to be out already, before Intel announced they were making a 64 bit chip for consumers.

[spaceelf]

XP64 was originally planned for workstation only, so was missing many consumer features. Changing that plan due to unexpected demand meant a large delay.

It didn't have that much to do with Intel.

[Slimy]

You are aware that 64bit processing only actually benefits very few types of apps, hell even the most demanding games like Doom3 and HL2 would actually suffer worse performance and a larger footprint if they were coded to be 64bit, if your talking about doing high level dbase work or truely complex 3D rendering i could understand why you would need it but don't go searching the web for a release date of a 64bit version of Solitaire its just not going to happen.

Oh and the first person to tell these guys why most apps are better as 32bit gets a Mars bar.

585312156[/snapback]

by the time longhorn is out, many apps and games will HAVE to catch on, they won't have a choice, or the competition will kill them :p

[Fred Derf Veteran]

64-bit is mainstream in the mac and server market, just waiting on windows-based systems to catch up on (again)

585312101[/snapback]

Is Tiger 64 bit?:

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=100075

64-bit Support in Tiger Is Only for Server Processes:

http://www.osnews.com/story.php?news_id=9220

[Fred Derf Veteran]

I'm planning on building a computer in the next couple years based around a 64-bit processor. I'm curious as to how long it'll be, in y'all's opinions, before 64-bit software becomes really widespread and really starts taking advantage of the more advanced processor. Any thoughts?

585310418[/snapback]

64bit commercial applications for Windows are still fairly far off.

There is precious little point in a 64bit operating system when the user has less than 4GB or RAM.

[spaceelf]

Again, the architecture features in X86-64 are a reason unto themself.

And we've already got gaming, photo editing, browser, 3d editing, image editing, and engineering programs confirmed going to X86-64...dunno why they don't count as commercial (besides the browser.)

[Fred Derf Veteran]

Again, the architecture features in X86-64 are a reason unto themself.

And we've already got gaming, photo editing, browser, 3d editing, image editing, and engineering programs confirmed going to X86-64...dunno why they don't count as commercial (besides the browser.)

585318439[/snapback]

Obviously there isn't going to be much development of 64bit apps until the 64bit personal edition of Windows is officially released. Even then, I'm not sure how quick the uptake will be. There isn't much point in 64bit computing with less than 4GB of RAM.

I'm sure that many announcements have been made and that there are good feelings all around but what are the timelines for these projects?

[Richardo]

In my opinion the whole 4GB ram limit that 32bit imposes will have more of a push factor into people adopting 64bit than anything else. The 4gb limit is coming up quick folks!

4gb of RAM is going to be mainstream in the next couple of years, for example:

[These specs are for high-end gaming rigs or graphic workstations requiring the most memory for that era, and are more than double the quantity that an average new pc would come with]

1997 (128mb)

2001 (512mb)

2005 (2000mb)

2007 - 4000mb? <-big move to 64bit

2009 (8000mb? )

Ram size loosely quadruples every four years. These are just my own humble observations. If they're right then 32bit will run out of steam around 2007, when we hit the 4gb barrier. Software that supports 64 bit or not - it maybe the physical limitations that 32bit addressing has that will push 64 bit.

But then, afterall, "640k ought to be enough for anybody" (Or whatever value that was!)

[Vykranth]

As many pointed out, 64-bits does not make sense if you have less than 4 GB of Ram.

There is also the hardware cost that prevents 64-bits to be mainstream.

I tried a HP workstation and I ended up with a $3000 machine just by putting 4GB of Ram instead of 512 MB.

Loading the CPU and putting a high-end graphic card inside and I am sure to hit $5000. I guess that I would get similar prices for Dell boxes or anyone else.

That makes machines kinda expensive and out of reach for most of us.

Richardo mentions the graphic workstations market and I agree with him: 4GB, 8GB or more workstations will be the norm in that industry very soon.

Yet, for companies like EADS (designing the A380 super-jumbo), I would guess that a $20K workstation price is supra-peanuts compared to the final price of the plane and the assurance that the plane is properly designed.

[spaceelf]

Well I already have an AMD64 proc, so I'll be using the OS and apps whether or not they be mainstream :)

[Laughing-Man]

WindowsXP 64-bit edition is not going to make 64-bit mainstream. Until MS releases an OS only for 64-bit systems and stops making a 32-bit OS along with hardware developers following in suite will it become mainstream. It was hard enough moving the average consumer, which makes up the majority of the market, to move from Windows 98/ME to WindowsXP. Now only like 3 years later you want them to move to a different OS, good luck. And it is not very profitable for companies to develope 64-bit software/hardware when like only .000001% of computer users have 64-bit systems and the majority has 32-bit systems.

[mAcOdIn Veteran]

Well for an example look at hyperthreading. We all thought hyperthreading was going to finally put multithreading into the mainstream, we thought it'd finally be great to be a gamer with a dual processor system, and now a year or so later and still there's no change.

I think there wont be a big push for several years because since both dominant 64bit chips will also run 32bit software why would you bother? So like jmole I don't think it will hit real mainstream until the market(microsoft) drops 32bit support, which will be a long time IMO.

But I'm hoping that in '06 it will be common enough in the fairly high powered stuff like games and professional apps.

[spaceelf]

WindowsXP 64-bit edition is not going to make 64-bit mainstream.  Until MS releases an OS only for 64-bit systems and stops making a 32-bit OS along with hardware developers following in suite will it become mainstream.  It was hard enough moving the average consumer, which makes up the majority of the market, to move from Windows 98/ME to WindowsXP.  Now only like 3 years later you want them to move to a different OS, good luck.  And it is not very profitable for companies to develope 64-bit software/hardware when like only .000001% of computer users have 64-bit systems and the majority has 32-bit systems.

585357829[/snapback]

Nobody said it would, from what I know. (Though one post was close.)

Though I would tend to disagree...I would say three to five years from now, with Longhorn, it will. Because the 64 bit support will be included in the base OS and sold in retail, unlike XP64.

If it's not very profitable, then why are they doing it? (Except that I have no idea what you mean by 64 bit hardware.)

Well for an example look at hyperthreading.  We all thought hyperthreading was going to finally put multithreading into the mainstream, we thought it'd finally be great to be a gamer with a dual processor system, and now a year or so later and still there's no change.

I think there wont be a big push for several years because since both dominant 64bit chips will also run 32bit software why would you bother?  So like jmole I don't think it will hit real mainstream until the market(microsoft) drops 32bit support, which will be a long time IMO.

But I'm hoping that in '06 it will be common enough in the fairly high powered stuff like games and professional apps.

585357868[/snapback]

Well, I don't know about 'we all'....I never did....but anyway.

Personally I think gaming with dual cores is a lot more likely than dual proc.

There will be a push in gaming, servers, engineering apps, and probably image editing apps. Also a push in enthusiast driven stuff (open source apps like Mozilla, Linux, and all that jazz.) No, that won't make it mainstream either, but it is a push.

And you know, people probably were talking like that when we had 16 bit and the 32 bit chips came out.

[Slipdisc210]

less than 24 months. closer to 15 I bet.