Paramount in HD DVD blow

[FreqFace]

I think at this point it makes complete sense for MS to release a Blu-Ray drive for 360. Just think of all the potential PS3 owners buying a 360 instead because of this.

[Boz]

Paramount Denies Report It Will Drop Toshiba's HD DVD

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aQMGgh2LV_bU

[+Mirumir Subscriber¹]

oh great! another HD-DVD vs Blu-ray thread.

/grab popcorn.

[trek]

Sorry I just had to steal this from another forum:

[giantpotato]

Paramount Denies Report It Will Drop Toshiba's HD DVD

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aQMGgh2LV_bU

That article just says they won't drop HD DVD. Since they have a clause in their contract , if they choose to go back to dual-format it would still be a major blow to HD DVD. about ~80%-90% of movies would be available on Blu-Ray. I see no reason why people would choose HD DVD. Hopefully Transformers will be available on Blu-Ray sometime soon.

[DrCheese]

Paramount Denies Report It Will Drop Toshiba's HD DVD

From the article:-

Paramount's current plan is to continue to support the HD DVD format,'' Brenda Ciccone, a spokeswoman for Paramount, said in an e-mail today

The keyword there is "current" Also it doesn't say "exclusively" anywhere :p

This release kinda reminds me of...

Warner - Dec. 13 2007:

We have made no decision to change our present policy which is to produce in both HD DVD and Blu-ray.

Warner - Jan 4th 2008:

We believe that exclusively distributing in Blu-ray will further the potential for mass market success and ultimately benefit retailers, producers, and most importantly, consumers.

I'm sure I'll be accused of spinning the press releases a bit, but of course paramount will say they support the format at this point in time. Just as Warner did. Companies always deny stuff exists right up until they are ready to go official.

I think the more interesting thing is universals "No comment" releases so far...

[Ayepecks]

My goodness, you people love twisting words and getting what you want out of things people say.

[Boz]

My goodness, you people love twisting words and getting what you want out of things people say.

That's been a trend for the past 3 days :) .. From retailers clearing shelves from HD DVD (completely ridiculous) to over-analyzing 1 word in the statements of anything HD DVD.

It doesn't matter.. what happens happens.. if HD DVD continues to fight Blu-Ray great, more BOGOs, prices dropping lower, combo drives get cheaper...or Blu-Ray finally wins if HD DVD studios support it, finally there's no war and people who can afford it will watch hi-def, those who can't will watch DVD until downloads take over. Anyways we are going that way.

One thing is sure, if Paramount or Universal don't go Blu, well then Sony is trouble because there's no way that war will end and it will stretch them financially much longer.

[DrCheese]

:p I knew I'd be accused of that, but the main point I raised is that companies won't say jack until they are ready to say otherwise. Paramount may go blu-ray, they may not but they will say they support HD-DVD right up until the last minute if they change their minds.

Microsoft denied the 360 elite,despite rumours saying opposite. Games publishers deny stuff like sequels or expansion packs and then a day later come out with major press releases.

[Huleboeren]

snip

It doesn't matter.. what happens happens.. if HD DVD continues to fight Blu-Ray great, more BOGOs, prices dropping lower, combo drives get cheaper...or Blu-Ray finally wins if HD DVD studios support it, finally there's no war and people who can afford it will watch hi-def, those who can't will watch DVD until downloads take over.

Anyways we are going that way.

So you think blu-ray prices will always stay that high? :huh:

[Ayepecks]

If Blu-Ray wins they'll have to decline eventually or no one will adopt. But how long that will take is anyone's guess.

[HawkMan]

Not allways, but without HD-DVD to push the pirces down, they certainly will take FAR longer to drop.

[Boz]

So you think blu-ray prices will always stay that high? :huh:

Of course not. But, it will be A LONG time before you see sub $100 blu-ray players, sale or no sale.

The business model for next gen format by BDA is to hold the prices above what they've become with DVD. CE companies are not making money with DVD, studios are seeing some decline with DVDs (or they are not making more money) either way they are looking for the new format and they don't really care about hardware. They just care that hardware is mass spread so people can buy this new stuff they sell at a bit higher prices.

Either way we look at it we are going to be paying more. With Blu-Ray, I don't think that Blu-Ray players will go less then $250 for brand name Profile 1.1 this year. Of course this is not bad, but it's still more then what we could've expected from HD DVD. We had players everywhere with even better specs now for $150-$170.

Secondly, those who want profile 2.0 with online mandatory, well then those will probably be $250-$300 next year. So what we really can expect is <$200 on Profile 1.1 sometime in 2009 and the same for Profile 2.0 players close to 2010.

PS3 will not drop more then $300 either if that happens at all for various reasons that I won't go into now. They just can't afford it. At least not in a while.

So yeah, the goal is to keep those prices up for as long as you can. Just look at the new wave of players and you'll understand it. The ONLY player on the market this year with $300 will be Funai. Other brands will be north from that number. Just watch CES reports.

Not allways, but without HD-DVD to push the pirces down, they certainly will take FAR longer to drop.

Yes, and don't forget with CE companies and studios now working together.. they can agree to start phasing out DVDs alltogether and replacing them with more expensive HD versions. So if you want to buy movies on optical media you will be in fact "forced" to pay higher prices for players and higher prices for movies. Of course, this could've happened with HD DVD, but at least you would have cheap hardware.

[MGS4-SS]

That's been a trend for the past 3 days :) .. From retailers clearing shelves from HD DVD (completely ridiculous) to over-analyzing 1 word in the statements of anything HD DVD.

It doesn't matter.. what happens happens.. if HD DVD continues to fight Blu-Ray great, more BOGOs, prices dropping lower, combo drives get cheaper...or Blu-Ray finally wins if HD DVD studios support it, finally there's no war and people who can afford it will watch hi-def, those who can't will watch DVD until downloads take over. Anyways we are going that way.

One thing is sure, if Paramount or Universal don't go Blu, well then Sony is trouble because there's no way that war will end and it will stretch them financially much longer.

But this is what I don't understand about your statements. A month ago you said that Warner's decision (BluRay or HDDVD) would decide. When Warner went BluRay, you said that it was over.

Now it isn't over?

And let me guess, when Paramount and Universal go neutral and then BluRay, you will say that BluRay still needs Cosmic Voyage Inc. to win, right?

Just need some confirmation.

[Boz]

But this is what I don't understand about your statements. A month ago you said that Warner's decision (BluRay or HDDVD) would decide. When Warner went BluRay, you said that it was over.

Now it isn't over?

And let me guess, when Paramount and Universal go neutral and then BluRay, you will say that BluRay still needs Cosmic Voyage Inc. to win, right?

Just need some confirmation.

First of all stop being ridiculous with comparing some nonsense studios to 3 big studios still on HD DVD side. You are making nonsense statements.

I still think it is very close to being over. That aspect has not changed, but what I was neglecting was the strenght of the Paramount, Dreamworks, Universal, Weinstein catalogs together. I mean at this point HD DVD has no way of winning. The only thing that can happen is for HD DVD studios to stick together and try to stretch it out enough for mass advantage of HD DVD takes it's toll and even with that they need one more big studio to go neutral. Can that happen with financial offer that some studio can't refuse is yet to be seen.

I doubt it will happen, I do think it's very close to being over. I just try to keep things real, there are still possibilities that HD DVD can do to continue fighting, or you are absolutely unable to see that? If Paramount or Universal go neutral, then it really is over.

[Huleboeren]

Of course not. But, it will be A LONG time before you see sub $100 blu-ray players, sale or no sale.

The business model for next gen format by BDA is to hold the prices above what they've become with DVD. CE companies are not making money with DVD, studios are seeing some decline with DVDs (or they are not making more money) either way they are looking for the new format and they don't really care about hardware. They just care that hardware is mass spread so people can buy this new stuff they sell at a bit higher prices.

...

If you think HD-DVD wouldve have gone this far down in prices without a competitor youre sadly mistaken :/

Like it or not, theres still fat mean suits behind HD-DVD too

[Boz]

If you think HD-DVD wouldve have gone this far down in prices without a competitor youre sadly mistaken :/

Like it or not, theres still fat mean suits behind HD-DVD too

I don't know when I said this. I'm much more aware then even you that this is how market works. I never said that. Overall format war allowed faster price drops. HD DVD was always more viable and cheaper solution. Even with the 1st gen players they were about $400 cheaper then Blu-Ray. Over time they did just like Blu-Ray did in order to compete.

Who knows, you wouldn't have seen PS3 go down in price if it wasn't for format war.

But the fact is, that you got to a point where HD DVD could've pushed more and Blu-Ray choices were becoming more critical. They just had a lot of problems going below $300 for players. And as you noticed, since Warner, some prices actually went up. This is no accident.

Just try to look at things objectively. If HD DVD won, you would have $150 players that are fully featured, nothing else is needed, with Blu-Ray it's gonna be $300-$400 for the same thing this year. That's not all obvious to you?

[Huleboeren]

I don't know when I said this. I'm much more aware then even you that this is how market works. I never said that. Overall format war allowed faster price drops. HD DVD was always more viable and cheaper solution. Even with the 1st gen players they were about $400 cheaper then Blu-Ray. Over time they did just like Blu-Ray did in order to compete.

Who knows, you wouldn't have seen PS3 go down in price if it wasn't for format war.

But the fact is, that you got to a point where HD DVD could've pushed more and Blu-Ray choices were becoming more critical. They just had a lot of problems going below $300 for players. And as you noticed, since Warner, some prices actually went up. This is no accident.

Just try to look at things objectively. If HD DVD won, you would have $150 players that are fully featured, nothing else is needed, with Blu-Ray it's gonna be $300-$400 for the same thing this year. That's not all obvious to you?

Yes it is - Im not saying it isnt

But HD-DVD would do the exact same if they were in the lead..

[Boz]

Yes it is - Im not saying it isnt

But HD-DVD would do the exact same if they were in the lead..

But we've already witnessed that's not the case. HD DVD was willing to go where Blu-Ray wasn't (sub $100 player and China support). That tells you that it would've different at least as far as hardware happens. I'm not so sure as software as I'm very much aware how much studios love money :)

[Huleboeren]

But we've already witnessed that's not the case. HD DVD was willing to go where Blu-Ray wasn't (sub $100 player and China support). That tells you that it would've different at least as far as hardware happens. I'm not so sure as software as I'm very much aware how much studios love money :)

Its sub $100 because they cant keep up with the sales of the competitor :/

No way in hell they would go that low if they were the only ones on the market..

And sub $100 was a sale? :huh:

[dead.cell]

Of course Paramount and Universal won't make any announcement for plans with Bluray. They'll try to sell off everything HD-DVD they can before saying,"We're Bluray now!" :rolleyes:

If you think any big company thinks morally before financially, you've got your head misplaced. They don't care about consumers.

That said, Sony isn't going to be in any trouble. They've won. So what if Paramount and Universal continue to sell HD-DVD movies? Hell, some of those early adopters will probably end up rebuying the same movies once available for Bluray should they choose to drop HD-DVD (Outlook: good!). Those studios would only be hurting themselves for the most part, as they'd be providing movies for a smaller user base.

I don't believe the PS3's drop in price was exactly decided by the push for Bluray. Sure, it very well helps, but their game console was also lagging behind in sales compared to the others. While Sony may have this format war won, it's clear they've come in third against the other 2 gaming consoles.

[Julius Caro]

I think I'm starting to understand what Warner did. I think it's pretty clear now that they wanted to go the HD-DVD way. The market right now is not big, but it isn't THAT small either. For once, the user base of either format is greater than a million.

When they saw that the alleged plans of going HD-DVD with Fox didn't work out, they went Blu. And not only did they go Blu, they announced it when it was going to hurt HD-DVD the most, with CES just the following days. Nobody will deny that there's a huge PR machinery going on to kill HD-DVD, and Toshiba canceling the press conference isn't helping either.

Of course, to justify turning their backs on a million of consumers they HAVE to kill HD-DVD asap. Otherwise, while it is a step towards ending the war, it doesn't mean an immediate defeat of HD-DVD.

They have to lure either Universal or Paramount, and it's all done. I don't expect BD's demand to soar HIGH, but I'm sure HD-DVD sales (both hardware and software) will suffer if uncertainty about the format's future continue. Paramount and Universal may have the biggest catalog in the business, that if they don't release it, it's pointless. Paramount didn't release that many titles when they were neutral. For all I care, Fox could go 'red' and nobody in the blu side will miss them.

Now, it all depends on 'demand'. Demand for Blu-ray may rise once ( IF) hd-dvd capitulates. That means no "cheap" prices in the short time, unless they're phasing out the old ones to introduce a new line of players.

But that's how it works. Inside the HD-DVD camp, toshiba don't compete with anybody other than Blu-ray, so their aggressive pricing strategy is just in response of BD players prices. If BD wasn't there, prices wouldn't be so low, and the same goes for the opposite scenario.

If BD reaches mainstream, there will be a bunch of CEs competing, as always. That means prices going on. Demand rises, supply rises, costs lower... you know how it works.

Now, I don't know what the figures are for stand alone players on both sides, PS3 excluded. But if Blu-ray has managed to ship a comparable amount of units at more expensive prices, that means that if their prices matched those of HD-DVD, they would sell A LOT more. Which ultimately means that BD is more demanded, despite is higher prices.

If people see that BD is too expensive and decide to wait it out,... meh, lower-than-expected demand = cheaper prices.

It all comes down to economics 101 when one format dies.

Also, is it confirmed that toshiba is selling those players for less than what it costs to make them? $100 for a player, I'd say the lens alone costs as much. HD-DVD only went that way to flood the market with HD-DVD players before it was too late. With too many players around, it is less likely that a studio decides to ignore that "little" fact. So, the Blu side will try everything to kill HD-DVD faster. If they don't succeed, it is unlikely that 1million players will be "ignored" so easily.

As for the announcement, we've seen it twice. Universal/Paramount/Dreamworks/Weinstein/Warner/Fox/Disney can swear their eternal love to their "current" format of choice that it wouldn't surprise me that they ditch it the next day.

[STV]

What confuses me a bit is why these other "content" companies would want to support a format created by their competitor (Sony).

Seems fishy. No?

STV

[sn00pie]

I'm sure you will be able to buy $100 BD players in the near future, but don't complain that there not Profile X.XX because they'll probably be "lesser" in technology then the more expensive players.

Just like the clearence sale on those sub $99 HD DVD players not too long ago. Those were the lowest of the lowest of HD DVD players feature wise, thats why they were so cheap. Theres still HD DVD players that retail at or higher then the price of BD players. But nobody cares about that, right? :/

The PS3 price drop was to move units, if not for that price drop we would still be sitting under 2-3 million units sold worldwide, i'm sure of that lol, the console was not selling at the high prices it was at. the HD format war didn't start to heat up until these past few months, before that HD was non-existent in my opinion lol

[AlphaPrime]

The reason why Toshiba was able to have the cheaper players is because they are the main company (and one of only a few) who are making HD-DVD only players. Being the leader of the format meant they could sacrifice margins and even lose money in order to get down to $199/$99. But that isn't good for other manufacturers who can't compete with those prices, so that's why most of them are on the Blu side (Panasonic, Samsung, Sharp, Pioneer, Phillips, etc), so they can keep their profit margins.

Another problem for Toshiba, is that while they have these $99-$199 players, BR standalones still made up basically half of all player sales, even with their 'far more' expensive players. Now that's not even including the PS3. With the prices as low as Toshiba were offering, they needed to be doing much better.