The latest data uncovered by the International Data Corporation (IDC) reveals a resilient global smartphone market that has finally bounced back from the post-pandemic decline after two successive years. Notably, low-end Android smartphones have shown remarkable growth, while Apple iPhones have not been able to capitalize on this trend.
According to IDC estimations, the global smartphone market is poised for significant growth, with manufacturers projected to ship 1.24 billion devices in 2024, demonstrating a 6.2 percent year-over-year increase. The primary driver for this growth is the need for device upgrades.
However, IDC predicted that the growth will slow down from 2025 onward, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) sitting at 2.6 percent from 2023 to 2028. IDC says the contributing factors are "increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and headwinds from the rapidly growing used smartphone market."
As for the operating systems, Android's year-over-year growth has been 7.6 percent. Most sales belong to affordable and low-end Android devices focusing on APeJC (Asia Pacific Excluding Japan and China), Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, and China.
However, iOS growth in 2024 is eerily low, with only 0.4 percent. IDC says while Apple products are gaining more traction in India, the firm is still facing an uphill battle in China, Europe, and the US. Meanwhile, IDC predicts a year-over-year growth of 3.1 percent for iOS in 2025.
Despite the industry's focus on AI, IDC believes that generative AI has not yet made a significant impact on smartphone demands. As the agency points out, companies still need to raise consumer awareness about GenAI and incorporate more essential AI features in their devices to encourage more users to purchase an AI-driven smartphone.
"For now, we expect GenAI smartphones will take their place in premium flagship devices and keep moving down in price tiers to rapidly grow to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028," IDC added.
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